When will we consider covid 'over'?

[chornbe]

I have this wonderful image in my head of an old-school medieval castle. Those who are willing to self-isolate sit in their towers and watch the "others" roam around the fields. Eventually, those roaming in the fields all die and the rest of society moves on....

Enjoy your freedom!

 

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[ChrisFZ1]

The fact is there is a 99 percent or better chance that you won't die from it. So much for your wonderful image.

[Mr. Whippy]

When there's a vaccine or herd immunity. Nothing else really counts. As the meme says,

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That.  Flattening the curve doesn't save lives, it simply keeps room in the ICU for those who need it.  It's gonna sweep through with the VAST majority of people not having major symptoms.  All "flattening the curve" does is spread out the infection rates so the hospitals can handle those who are in trouble from it.  In West Michigan those numbers are currently very low, but as mentioned, could rise again once we begin to open up a bit.  That is to be expected (and it won't be a surprise nor a "I told you so" moment), because we simply cannot stay hunkered down and quarantined forever.

FYI a real vaccine gives a weakened or dead virus so YOUR body can react to it and achieve immunity.  If you get antibodies it can help you defeat the virus but you don't get immunity from that.

A very simple way to think about it:
Think of an antibody as the laser designator- it marks the virus for destruction.  A type of lymphocyte is like the bomb- it comes in and destroys the viruses marked by the antibodies.  If YOU made your own antibodies, and have immunity.  If you get antibodies from somewhere else (like how we treat rabies in humans) your body will kill the virus, but you don't have immunity.

So sorry Clay but let me clarify this.

1.  Flattening the curve IS intended to save lives.  Lives that would have been lost because there was insufficient advanced life support care (ICU's, ventilators, experienced intensivists , ICU nurses or resp techs to run equipment) due to the sheer number of severely sick patients.  Flattening the curve does NOT significantly alter the total number of infections (prevalence), it merely smears them out over a longer time period.

2.  Vaccines come in various forms: Live virus, dead virus, virus free (pathogen free)--either antigen based or RNA based.  With SARS-cov2, most of the vaccine work is using a portion of the spike protein only.  There is some work with using the RNA of a portion of the spike protein and manipulating it so that injection of the RNA leads to endogenous production of the target protein.

3.  There is very active research with plasmapheresiing recovered COVID19 patients and using their antibodies to treat patients (much like rabies) but that is still being worked out.  It is an effective therapy in ebola virus patients.  If effective enough, there are ways for bioengineers to manufacture manmade antibody as a monoclonal (MAb) product.

[Black Hills]

aaannnddd   here we go again... I love this place!

shit, what was I again, Hamfisted fuckwit, or something like that? 

I didn't call you that, but I giggled at the term. Nothing to do with you. It's a pretty funny moniker.

It's his signature line....

haha  yes it is!!  this got me thinking so I had to go back and find the origins. He is correct though he did not technically call me a hamfisted fuckwit: http://www.sport-touring.org/index.php?topic=6123.msg182287#msg182287

apologies (sort of) for the threadjack, please return to your original topic of concern

[leeo45]

   I have this wonderful image in my head of an old-school medieval castle. Those who are willing to self-isolate sit in their towers and watch the "others" roam around the fields.

Great imagery.    I don't have a medieval castle (don't think there is such a thing in the colonies) so I'm just holed up at the lake house overlooking the crowds partying on the lake each weekend.   

I'm not overly concerned with dying even though my age puts me in the higher risk group.   However I would like to avoid the misery of being painfully sick for many weeks and the potential for long term adverse health effects.   
.... and I don't want to risk shedding the virus on someone else, especially someone who might be at even higher risk than me.   
.... plus the $9,000 in out-of-pocket medical expense that will hit with any hospital stay despite having 'very good' medical insurance.   

So, even though SC has opened back up my personal choice will be to stay close to my castle for a while longer.   

[Papa Lazarou]

It will be over when:

1 (as has been said) there is a vaccine. Herd immunity is not a great option.

2 something nastier comes along and takes our attention somewhere else

3 there are perfectly good 17th century castles in the Americas. But your maintenance programmes have been awful. Actually, not really a 3 at all. But Leeo did say.

[ChrisFZ1]

.

[miles]

3 there are perfectly good 17th century castles in the Americas. But your maintenance programmes have been awful. Actually, not really a 3 at all. But Leeo did say.

Here you go, Papa.  Construction started in 1672.

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[Papa Lazarou]

.

bit late for being competitive, Chris.

Until this came along, I used to shove my fingers up people's arses and then I realised I needed to change.

But not much.

[Papa Lazarou]

3 there are perfectly good 17th century castles in the Americas. But your maintenance programmes have been awful. Actually, not really a 3 at all. But Leeo did say.

Here you go, Papa.  Construction started in 1672.

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Told you. Not medieval but the same principles (plus guns, obs). Beautiful bit of military architecture. Based on 16 ct star forts.

[ChrisFZ1]

The revolutionary period forts are cool to visit.

[Papa Lazarou]

The revolutionary period forts are cool to visit.

you had a revolution in 1672?

[chornbe]

you had a revolution in 1672?

That's when construction started. They had a prophecy and shitty laborers. 

[Skee]

You fart smellers can always stay home with the blinds drawn while the rest of us adapt and move on. That's called freedom.

Get over it. It's happening.

I have this wonderful image in my head of an old-school medieval castle. Those who are willing to self-isolate sit in their towers and watch the "others" roam around the fields. Eventually, those roaming in the fields all die and the rest of society moves on....

Enjoy your freedom!

That sounds so very like the Swiss.  Have you gone over to the other side?

[ChrisFZ1]

I didn't know the Swiss had such dark imagery in their heads.

[CLAY]

You fart smellers can always stay home with the blinds drawn while the rest of us adapt and move on. That's called freedom.

Get over it. It's happening.

I have this wonderful image in my head of an old-school medieval castle. Those who are willing to self-isolate sit in their towers and watch the "others" roam around the fields. Eventually, those roaming in the fields all die and the rest of society moves on....  and the rest of society collapses because those sitting in the castle can't fill those jobs...

Enjoy your freedom!

Fixed.   

[Patmo]

I have this wonderful image in my head of an old-school medieval castle. Those who are willing to self-isolate sit in their towers and watch the "others" roam around the fields. Eventually, those roaming in the fields all die and the rest of society moves on....

Enjoy your freedom!

Historically, the people stuck in castles under siege did not fair well.  Not a good comparison at all.  Starvation was a far more effective weapon than any catapult or troops.  If all those people on the outside die out and can no longer grow, prepare, and serve food to the people in the castle, and the castle runs out of food.....what then?

[Skee]

Given a choice, I’d take my chances inside the castle. 

[st2sam]

You fart smellers can always stay home with the blinds drawn while the rest of us adapt and move on. That's called freedom.

Get over it. It's happening.

I have this wonderful image in my head of an old-school medieval castle. Those who are willing to self-isolate sit in their towers and watch the "others" roam around the fields. Eventually, those roaming in the fields all die and the rest of society moves on....  and the rest of society collapses because those sitting in the castle can't fill those jobs...
Enjoy your freedom!

Fixed.   

Thanks Clay. 

IMO - time to start easing more restrictions, common sense and more localized decisions should now be the rule.
Open more businesses, if you are not happy the way they are operating, don't patronize.

It ain't over till it's over. 

[HipGnosis]

I have this wonderful image in my head of an old-school medieval castle. Those who are willing to self-isolate sit in their towers and watch the "others" roam around the fields. Eventually, those roaming in the fields all die and the rest of society moves on....

Enjoy your freedom!

Historically, the people stuck in castles under siege did not fair well.  Not a good comparison at all.  Starvation was a far more effective weapon than any catapult or troops.  If all those people on the outside die out and can no longer grow, prepare, and serve food to the people in the castle, and the castle runs out of food.....what then?

The 'roamers' aren't siegeing the castle(s).
People that live in castles have servants with them.   At least some of them would know how to provide food.

Smidge of history; In the 1346 Siege of Caffa, the Mongol army hurled black plague-infected cadavers into the Crimean city of Caffa.  Transmitting <sic> the disease to the residents. Arguably the first use of biological warfare.

[thatguy]

You fart smellers can always stay home with the blinds drawn while the rest of us adapt and move on. That's called freedom.

Get over it. It's happening.

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[Patmo]

The 'roamers' aren't siegeing the castle(s).
People that live in castles have servants with them.   At least some of them would know how to provide food.

Is that anything like, .”We don’t need farmers, we can just go the grocery store and get food.”?

You can’t grow food, produce electricity, pump water, etc. from inside your castle (home).  Or at least 99.9% of the population can’t.  That’s why those industries are considered “essential”.  Your correct that those people (or any people) aren’t going to “siege” the castle.  Fear is.  It makes people want to go home and then stay home. It makes government officials order people to go home and to stay there. And for some people, and possibly even some areas of the country, that might be the right thing to do, at least for NOW.  But for other people, and other areas, it’s NOT. 

In fact, there is real debate about the possibility that for people in urban areas, that live in apartment complexes, it might have been the absolute worst thing to do, as it appears the virus can be transported through ventilation systems and thin walls from one unit to another.  In other words, a true castle might actually be the one place you wouldn’t want to stay in.  Nursing homes, hospitals, etc. seem to be the hardest hit places, along with some factories, where people stay inside all the time and breath the same recycled air over and over.  Even if it’s filtered it can’t remove all of the virus. There are some real interesting articles on this and how other Covid viruses have been spread in the past. 

[PatM]

The 'roamers' aren't siegeing the castle(s).
People that live in castles have servants with them.   At least some of them would know how to provide food.

Is that anything like, .”We don’t need farmers, we can just go the grocery store and get food.”?

You can’t grow food, produce electricity, pump water, etc. from inside your castle (home).  Or at least 99.9% of the population can’t.  That’s why those industries are considered “essential”.  Your correct that those people (or any people) aren’t going to “siege” the castle.  Fear is.  It makes people want to go home and then stay home. It makes government officials order people to go home and to stay there. And for some people, and possibly even some areas of the country, that might be the right thing to do, at least for NOW.  But for other people, and other areas, it’s NOT. 

In fact, there is real debate about the possibility that for people in urban areas, that live in apartment complexes, it might have been the absolute worst thing to do, as it appears the virus can be transported through ventilation systems and thin walls from one unit to another.  In other words, a true castle might actually be the one place you wouldn’t want to stay in.  Nursing homes, hospitals, etc. seem to be the hardest hit places, along with some factories, where people stay inside all the time and breath the same recycled air over and over.  Even if it’s filtered it can’t remove all of the virus. There are some real interesting articles on this and how other Covid viruses have been spread in the past.

Spain, one of the worst hit countries in Europe has started deconfinement except in Barcelona and Madrid. They've started opening up the bars and restaurants, generally restarting the economy. I think you're right, the biggest problem lies within the castle. However, can you deconfine the country side and force the city dwellers to remain in confinement? If you don't, won't they spread the disease to the country side? I wouldn't want to be the one that has to decide on that issue.   

[Skee]

Interesting hypothesis; you can read the full story in the link below.  In response to the question "...can you deconfine the country side and force the city dwellers to remain in confinement?"

Vanity Fair: If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says

It sounds too good to be true. But a compelling new study and computer model provide fresh evidence for a simple solution to help us emerge from this nightmarish lockdown. The formula? Always social distance in public and, most importantly, wear a mask.

If you’re wondering whether to wear or not to wear, consider this. The day before yesterday, 21 people died of COVID-19 in Japan. In the United States, 2,129 died. Comparing overall death rates for the two countries offers an even starker point of comparison with total U.S. deaths now at a staggering 76,032 and Japan’s fatalities at 577. Japan’s population is about 38% of the U.S., but even adjusting for population, the Japanese death rate is a mere 2% of America’s.

The mask debate, of course, has been raging for weeks in the States and globally. Pro-maskers assert that the widespread use of face coverings can diminish the spread of COVID-19. Some anti-maskers, including various politicians and public health officials, have insisted that there is no proof of the efficacy of face guards. According to some activists, a blanket mask mandate places a limit on individual liberty and even one’s right to free speech.

[OHScot]

The cities are the problem.  Too much Too many

[Patmo]

The cities are the problem.  Too much Too many

Possibly an influence on the trend, but not necessarily “the problem”.  But even if there are, people living in cities is not going to change in any foreseeable future.  The current social and economic systems all around the world depend on the majority of people living in clusters.

[ChrisFZ1]

But, I've been told that urban dwelling with mass transit is what will "save" the environment. 

[ChrisFZ1]

Strange, that's what I've been calling for as we open up. Social distancing, wearing a mask, washing our hands.  Time to take another bow.

[chornbe]

And it'll be over when we start taking the word "contagious" seriously.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/icu-doctor-what-i-wish-people-knew-about-coronavirus/

[Skee]

Strange, that's what I've been calling for as we open up. Social distancing, wearing a mask, washing our hands.  Time to take another bow.

With a few significant and consequential differences.

Medical facilities have now had time to prepare. 
Medical professionals have learned more about effective treatments.
The general population has learned about effective preventative measures like social distancing. 

And yes, I agree it’s now about time to start opening things back up in a pragmatic and responsible progression. 

[Patmo]

And it'll be over when we start taking the word "contagious" seriously.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/icu-doctor-what-i-wish-people-knew-about-coronavirus/

EXCELLENT article!  Thanks for posting that. 

[Black Hills]

I believe (from my nurse wife) that viral loading is the key component. 

[thatguy]

I listened to an interview with Dr. Ralph Baric (Professor of immunology UNC among other things) this morning on the way to work. The guy has been researching corona viruses for decades and is an accepted expert on them. Take this shit seriously or prepare to suffer.

[ChrisFZ1]

Strange, that's what I've been calling for as we open up. Social distancing, wearing a mask, washing our hands.  Time to take another bow.

With a few significant and consequential differences.

Medical facilities have now had time to prepare. 
Medical professionals have learned more about effective treatments.
The general population has learned about effective preventative measures like social distancing. 
 
And yes, I agree it’s now about time to start opening things back up in a pragmatic and responsible progression.

Except that my advocation of opening occured only after it was clear our hospitals were not nor where they going to be overrun.

Regardless, it's good to see more folks coming to this realization.

[CLAY]

You fart smellers can always stay home with the blinds drawn while the rest of us adapt and move on. That's called freedom.

Get over it. It's happening.

I have this wonderful image in my head of an old-school medieval castle. Those who are willing to self-isolate sit in their towers and watch the "others" roam around the fields. Eventually, those roaming in the fields all die and the rest of society moves on....

Enjoy your freedom!

After listening to NPR today this really smacked me of white privilege.  Let the migrants work and die!  We need FOOD! 

(I'm sure it wasn't intended that way, but the choice of metaphor might not be that great considering what's going on (and has been for decades) in our low income (non-castle0- the "field worker") areas.)

[Mrs. DantesDame]

I have this wonderful image in my head of an old-school medieval castle. Those who are willing to self-isolate sit in their towers and watch the "others" roam around the fields. Eventually, those roaming in the fields all die and the rest of society moves on....

After listening to NPR today this really smacked me of white privilege.  Let the migrants work and die!  We need FOOD! 

(I'm sure it wasn't intended that way, but the choice of metaphor might not be that great considering what's going on (and has been for decades) in our low income (non-castle- the "field worker") areas.)

Ha! Not intended that way at all. Those people in the field were made up those idiots protesting in the streets, or having parties on the beach.

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[thatguy]

You fart smellers can always stay home with the blinds drawn while the rest of us adapt and move on. That's called freedom.

Get over it. It's happening.

I have this wonderful image in my head of an old-school medieval castle. Those who are willing to self-isolate sit in their towers and watch the "others" roam around the fields. Eventually, those roaming in the fields all die and the rest of society moves on....

Enjoy your freedom!

After listening to NPR today this really smacked me of white privilege.  Let the migrants work and die!  We need FOOD! 

(I'm sure it wasn't intended that way, but the choice of metaphor might not be that great considering what's going on (and has been for decades) in our low income (non-castle0- the "field worker") areas.)

I would venture there are few meat packing workers anxious to return to the line. The industry has been deregulated over the past few years and it's really shitty work.

I've been dipping into the venison and veggie stash lately to cover my lack of desire to visit grocery stores. Fortunately I stash food for just such occasions. if it all goes to shit I'm good for a month or so w/o resupply  on most items. Coffee would need rationing and the guy who rents the back field is a dairy farmer.

The local chicken processor has the WV National Guard at the door testing incoming employees after there was a report of Covid-19 infection among workers. Wonder if those "protestors" would be willing to fill in for the affected personnel? I believe they need to average processing 145 chickens a minute. Like I said really shitty work.

[Patmo]

I predict that if those areas that have opened up do not see a big big jump in cases 2 weeks from now, and the governors in states like New York and Michigan do not open things up by then, there will be a lot more people protesting.

The reason to shut everything down was so that the hospitals wouldn’t be overrun and overwhelmed.  Where did that happen?  In areas of large populations primarily.  People that don’t live in those areas want to be treated like they matter too. Treating a whole state based on the situations in the largest cities has been pissing people off for a long time.  Now that those people aren’t going to work, they have the time and the incentive to take their complaints to the capitals.  They may be few, but they are going to be vocal. 

[ChrisFZ1]

You just want people to die!

[thatguy]

You just want people to die!

As opposed to wanting to taunt death?

[Bounce]

Given a choice, I’d take my chances inside the castle.

That's what Prospero thought too in, The Masque of the Red Death

[thatguy]

Given a choice, I’d take my chances inside the castle.

That's what Prospero thought too in, The Masque of the Red Death

Referencing Poe...............Solid empirical data there.

[ChrisFZ1]

Given a choice, I’d take my chances inside the castle.

That's what Prospero thought too in, The Masque of the Red Death

Referencing Poe...............Solid empirical data there.

Much like that wonderful mind image of the mere peasants dying.

[Bounce]

Given a choice, I’d take my chances inside the castle.

That's what Prospero thought too in, The Masque of the Red Death

Referencing Poe...............Solid empirical data there.

Much like that wonderful mind image of the mere peasants dying.

Excellent point. More importantly is that I remembered the references without having to look them up.

[Skee]

Given a choice, I’d take my chances inside the castle.

That's what Prospero thought too in, The Masque of the Red Death

Referencing Poe...............Solid empirical data there.

Much like that wonderful mind image of the mere peasants dying.

Excellent point. More importantly is that I remembered the references without having to look them up.

Google is my friend, but that along with old age has made me forgetful.   

[thatguy]

Bottom line is you can survive a rattlesnake bite but it's far better to not get bitten. I fail to grasp why people wish to taunt fate. I've been working through the whole thing so I understand needing to pay bills but precautions are taken. Does anyone here ride sans helmet while wearing sandals shorts and a t-shirt?

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[maddjack]

Bottom line is you can survive a rattlesnake bite but it's far better to not get bitten. I fail to grasp why people wish to taunt fate. I've been working through the whole thing so I understand needing to pay bills but precautions are taken. Does anyone here ride sans helmet while wearing sandals shorts and a t-shirt?

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[chornbe]

   [1]




1 - not stupid

[Black Hills]

Bottom line is you can survive a rattlesnake bite but it's far better to not get bitten. I fail to grasp why people wish to taunt fate. I've been working through the whole thing so I understand needing to pay bills but precautions are taken. Does anyone here ride sans helmet while wearing sandals shorts and a t-shirt?

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Everyone has their own level of acceptable risk, based on their circumstances. Plenty of people out there that thing the whole bunch of us here are suicidal morons for riding a motorcyle, it's just where you draw the line personally. It's liek the old thing about everyone driving faster than you is a lunatic and everyone driving slower is a moron.
as for your question, yes I've ridden sans helmet while wearing a T-shirt to my local pub and had a few beers and rode the 3 miles of rural road back home. Would I ride without a helmet farther than that, No! but that is an acceptable amount of risk for me. same with the current situation. I'm still going to work, riding, getting needed items from the store, etc. my opinion* is that this is a nasty little bug for sure ( not a hoax) and if you are one of the 40-60% exposed and if you are one of the 20% who have something other than mild symptoms and if you are one of the 5-15% who end up in ICU it's a very bad thing. But, that is a few too many if's to make me stay home indefinitely.
Am i going to a concert, a packed restaurant, a meat packing plant, a bus or subway,etc. hell no!  but I am still going for a ride on my area (low amount of cases) and picking up groceries at off peak times, and getting together with a friend or two occasionally. that is my level of acceptable risk. don't expect me to live by what you think is appropriate.

[thatguy]

Bottom line is you can survive a rattlesnake bite but it's far better to not get bitten. I fail to grasp why people wish to taunt fate. I've been working through the whole thing so I understand needing to pay bills but precautions are taken. Does anyone here ride sans helmet while wearing sandals shorts and a t-shirt?

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.............................. that is my level of acceptable risk. don't expect me to live by what you think is appropriate.

I neither asked nor implied any such thing. You are free to do as you see fit. But if you are one of those who sees no debilitating symptoms good for you. But what of the ones you infect who are of the 5-15% referred to? And if they are ones you care for? Explain that to a loved one who lies in ICU.

However by drinking and riding w/o a helmet you answer many questions. Actually I've done so but it was many decades ago when I felt death was for others. I paid a hefty price that lives with me still. Perhaps that influences my choices today.