COVID-19 Video

[R Doug]

And, FWIW, while I believe in the freedom of individuals, my choice is mask all the time, avoid large gatherings (including neighborhood dinners we've been invited to), and give  every time I see those around me going to vacation and eating dinner in crowded places, those attending my church, and those who constantly run out to go shopping in this environment.  Their choice.  But, the US does appears to be doing better than Europe as a whole and I'm sick of the, "you all are a bunch of backward hicks." 


Now, truth be told, why am I avoiding getting the virus? Well, I have one major and one minor reason. The major is my 80 year old mother in law lives with us and we take care of her.  We can't afford to get it and pass it on to her.  Second, I do have a friend my age that is still recovering since March from COVID and appears to have permanent lung damage.  While that may be an outlier, it's not fun to watch.

Statistically, I'm nearly 50.  My likelihood of having any complications with this virus is nearly equal to that of the bad flu.  And, once you start looking at those younger, the odds of complications is LESS than that of the flu.

People should be educate themselves and make wise decisions.  If I'm a baby boomer and still want to attend Sturgis this year, that's not an informed / educated decision.  YMMV

[Black Hills]

I'm doing the same as Doug. I have gone out to my local bar, handful of people, but other than that avoiding other people for the most part. My wife is an ICU nurse and just got her first COVID patient last week, I probably have a greater risk of getting it from her than anywhere else.

She did have an interesting take on the hydroxychloroquine debate. her opinion* is that while the CDC is correct that it does nothing against the virus it does treat the symptoms (inflammation in the lungs), so basically it won;t keep you from getting the virus but it very well may save your life if you are one of the rare cases that end up in ICU. A few other COPD drugs work this way as well. misinformation (social media) due to politics seems to be the biggest problem we have.

p.s. I will be avoiding all public contact during the rally. 

[zer0netgain]

Virginia is now the first state to implement a contact tracing mobil app.

https://richmond.com/news/virginia/watch-now-add-your-phone-to-the-covid-fight-virginia-rolls-out-new-app-to/article_abe4a02f-f52e-5f77-8ed1-8dfdce1f30d7.html

My employer (state agency) just sent an e-mail on that.  I will not participate.  Since they don't own my phone, they can't force me to install it.

[Skee]

Freedumb!

+1

...the rate of new cases has started to decrease.

There's something about this chart that's a bit deceiving in comparing the US to the world (or, a hand full of countries representing the world).  While I don't doubt the chart's data, the US is not THAT bad compared to those countries. 

I'm with you on that; there is no single chart that provides a fair comparison because everyone is reporting numbers differently.  In one graph, number of deaths per infections, points in a different direction than number of infections per 100k tested.  (Insert quote attributed to Mark Twain here.)  Compare NY to CA, or CT to FL, or NH to AZ.  Do you see any trends?

To my way of thinking, the US should be the stand-out example of the best way to do it; not a patchwork quilt of hit-or-miss approaches.

[Eh2zed]

I'm not an apologist for the US.  But, it appears to be getting slammed a bit in this thread. 

Europe has 51 countries with a population of about 740 million.
The USA is about 330 million.
European deaths about 200,000  706,000
US deaths about 160,000.
If you use the European ratio then there’s about 65,000 too many deaths in the USA. Why? I’m not sure but I’m getting it’s the masks. I still have no clue about the Germany/France difference either. 30,000 dead French. Less than 10,000 Germans. Germany even has 20,000 more cases than France. So ??

FTFY

USA Population 330 million.  Agreed
European Population 740 million.  Agreed

USA COVID Cases To Date 4.8 million
European COVID Cases To Date 18.8 million 
The number of cases per million in the US is 1.7X better than Europe

USA COVID Deaths To Date 159K 
European COVID Deaths To Date  706K   
The number of deaths per million in the US is 2X better than Europe

Uh no. European deaths just over 202k.
706 is total worldwide deaths

[R Doug]

To my way of thinking, the US should be the stand-out example of the best way to do it; not a patchwork quilt of hit-or-miss approaches.

i'm more along the lines that each state should be able to set it own course and direction (similar to any other national disaster handling like hurricanes, floods, etc..). They should know best what's right for their people but have data and assistance from the Fed, as needed.  But, now the Trump Administration is having all data go to some independent company for compilation and leaving the states in the dark.  For a guy who also says he believes in the rights of states, he's not showing it by this action.  (sorry to get a bit political here).


 


https://khn.org/news/trump-administrations-sudden-shift-on-covid-data-leaves-states-in-the-lurch/

[R Doug]

Uh no. European deaths just over 202k.
706 is total worldwide deaths

 

Yep, you're right.  Thanks for the follow up.  I just revisited the site I googled for "European COVID stats" and it did report the deaths as global, not just for Europe.   

[Mrs. DantesDame]

There is a slight spike in some European countries but the governments are reacting quickly.
Switzerland reported 131 new cases the other day, but overall I think that the rates per capita are pretty low here.

Here is a pretty good website for Swiss stuff, for those who care

[jadziadax8]

Are you disappointed too?

[viffergyrl]

Are you disappointed too?

2020 isn't over yet.

[jimmy]

 

We all make mistakes! 

















ya backwards hick!     

[Papa Lazarou]

Are you disappointed too?

2020 isn't over yet.

wait til 2021

[coho]

Are you disappointed too?

2020 isn't over yet.

wait til 2021

I hope 2020 is over by then.

[Papa Lazarou]

Are you disappointed too?

2020 isn't over yet.

wait til 2021

I hope 2020 is over by then.

I think it'll run side by side

[Papa Lazarou]

not even 2021 yet: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/china-bubonic-plague-death-village-a4518936.html

[Vulcanbill]

visitors can't see pics , please register or login

[Papa Lazarou]

no, I didn't get all the references eitherer.; but this covers both the Brexit thread and this one. Could be the Tory rapist as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWdmkGw9qng&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3ov5N2bJWZF2grkKDtu9Z9SDxUPcaQRcNvBDk0wB9ZJX_4gwHHdW-ep4Q

[biking sailor]

How old and how healthy are a couple big factors. Why California has done better than New York. Southern state beware.

[Papa Lazarou]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/new-mexico-man-in-his-20s-dies-of-the-plague-officials-confirm/ar-BB17SIGP?ocid=spartanntp

We are definitely living in a Leonard Cohen song, now.

[Skee]

Not to worry; there's just one case...

[Eh2zed]

I never would have thought that a global pandemic that’s killed 3/4 of a million people so far would be the 2nd greatest threat to civilization.

[Flyer]

I never would have thought that a global pandemic that’s killed 3/4 of a million people so far would be the 2nd greatest threat to civilization.

The first is Twitter?

[TwistedT]

I never would have thought that a global pandemic that’s killed 3/4 of a million people so far would be the 2nd greatest threat to civilization.

The first is Twitter?

Twitter's in a back and forth battle for the lead with facebook.

[biking sailor]

Reading the article posted above, can someone explain to me what this means?

"The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that there are between 1,000 and 2,000 cases of plague globally each year.

Between 30 and 100 percent of those cases prove fatal, according to the WHO. "

It's the second sentence that isn't exactly clear. Seem an awfully wide spread.

[Skee]

Reading the article posted above, can someone explain to me what this means?

"The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that there are between 1,000 and 2,000 cases of plague globally each year.

Between 30 and 100 percent of those cases prove fatal, according to the WHO. "

It's the second sentence that isn't exactly clear. Seem an awfully wide spread.

I can't fully explain the statistical model they used because I am not interested in reading the article and it's quite possible the author either didn't include sufficient detail or misrepresented certain data because they didn't understand what they were saying.  Happens all the time. 

[Revised for clarity] There is an estimated range of 1000 to 2000 cases per year.  I would assume there is a difference between the estimated range and the actual number number of cases per year.  (In other words, the actual number of cases in any given year could be lower than 1000 or higher than 2000).  There is also an estimated percentage of fatal cases each year. So the average number of fatalities is dependent on 2 estimates.  Regardless of the number of actual cases, the number of fatalities each year is estimated to be as low as (30%x1000=) 300 or as high as (100%x2000=) 2000. 

At least that is how I interpret it.  Anyone else? 

[Eh2zed]

I’m trying to imagine how the WHO figures out the cause of death for some poor sap in the middle of a country that has basic medical care that consists of someone with a bandaid and an alcohol swab. It’s sad but a fact that they are stuck with estimating.

[Eh2zed]

I’m thinking that the statistics on Belgium which is a modern country are a prime example of how statistics can be very confusing.

[Flyer]

I’m thinking that the statistics on Belgium which is a modern country are a prime example of how statistics can be very confusing.

If you add up all the numbers, I’m the progeny of Tutankhamun.

[Skee]

I’m thinking that the statistics on Belgium which is a modern country are a prime example of how statistics can be very confusing.

Yeah, statistics can be difficult to understand.  That’s why some people rely on gut instinct instead of making data-based decisions. “Listen to your gut, no matter how good something sounds on paper.”

On the other hand, if you had insufficient resources to test all scenarios, like WHO does in assessing worldwide disease or like the USA did when assigning air patrols sectors before the battle of Midway, it would be very helpful to make use of statistics (and some game theory math) to evaluate which strategy to pursue.  I understand the data analysis for Midway also represents the first use of computer data analysis in a military situation, but that is based on something I read years ago, and many accounts chalk it up to shear dumb luck.  I know which version of the story I prefer. 

Just like motorcycle riding (push left to go right), data based decisions often involve confusing directives, because they are counterintuitive.  “Guys like us, we’re not brainiacs on the nerd patrol.”


Then I look at stuff I wrote like this and realize I have been cooped up inside way too long.

[Eh2zed]

Statistics are just an excuse for the existence of baseball.

[Skee]

So true. 

[PatM]

My understanding of how they figure how many died due to Covid is they compare how many deaths at this time in 2020 vs how many deaths on average at the same time for the previous years. It's probably the best guestimate you can get. 

[Papa Lazarou]

My understanding of how they figure how many died due to Covid is they compare how many deaths at this time in 2020 vs how many deaths on average at the same time for the previous years. It's probably the best guestimate you can get. 

seems to be the best method. not quick, as it takes a few weeks to gather the data.

[Skee]

Check out today’s Dilbert Comic.

Humans Making Decisions

[biking sailor]

My understanding of how they figure how many died due to Covid is they compare how many deaths at this time in 2020 vs how many deaths on average at the same time for the previous years. It's probably the best guestimate you can get. 

I've heard a few guys, that are purported to be smart, say we won't really know the true virus impact until life expectancy numbers are calculated. Think of all the non-medical things that have been affected, from auto crashes to suicides to food production to economic impact...

Complicated situation.

[OHScot]

Lies, damn lies and statistics.


They are incentivizing the numbers and skewing the outcome, any off the record nurse or doctor will confirm.  Not that it is not a problem and real.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Lies, damn lies and statistics.


They are incentivizing the numbers and skewing the outcome, any off the record nurse or doctor will confirm.  Not that it is not a problem and real.

 

They may be the case in the US but nearly everywhere else is under reporting, partly because of lack of testing, partly because no government wants high figures.

[Skee]

Lies, damn lies and statistics.


They are incentivizing the numbers and skewing the outcome, any off the record nurse or doctor will confirm.  Not that it is not a problem and real.

 

Our friends sent me an email warning me not to believe the statistics that are being reported because the numbers are being inflated to make people think the situation is worse than it really is.  They went on to say (later in the same email) that they have temporarily left their home in Florida (along with anyone else who has any sense, in their words) for a place they have in the Blue Ridge Mts because too many people are getting sick.

I don't know who to believe.

[Baxter]

Lies, damn lies and statistics.


They are incentivizing the numbers and skewing the outcome, any off the record nurse or doctor will confirm.  Not that it is not a problem and real.

 

Our friends sent me an email warning me not to believe the statistics that are being reported because the numbers are being inflated to make people think the situation is worse than it really is.  They went on to say (later in the same email) that they have temporarily left their home in Florida (along with anyone else who has any sense, in their words) for a place they have in the Blue Ridge Mts because too many people are getting sick.

I don't know who to believe.

 

[Eh2zed]

[/quote]

 
[/quote]

😂😂😂

It’s hard to hide the bodies....

[radon222]

The "Corona Song" = John Valby*

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=V7JZgJbwZ14&list=RDAMVMV7JZgJbwZ14




*believe it or not, its actually SFW

[Eh2zed]

Some 33 year old guy in Hong Kong recovered from Covid19.
142 days later he got it again.
Crap.

[miles]

Crossposted: https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/08/24/almost-50-north-texans-drank-bleach-this-month-poison-center-warns-stop-it-wont-cure-covid/

[zer0netgain]

Some 33 year old guy in Hong Kong recovered from Covid19.
142 days later he got it again.
Crap.

Immunity doesn’t last.
The virus has mutated into multiple strains...he might have contracted a different strain.
Getting over it doesn’t mean it isn’t hiding in your system...like chicken pox.

[Papa Lazarou]

let's hope it mutates into something less virulent.

[Skee]

FDA gives go-ahead to fast $5 coronavirus test that doesn't require lab equipment

"The US FDA has authorized emergency use of a coronavirus test that costs $5 and can produce results in 15 minutes without the use of any lab equipment. "

"Test-maker Abbott says it could soon manufacture 50 million of the rapid antigen tests per month, which could ease the country's testing bottleneck by greatly increasing overall capacity and the speed at which results arrive."

"Abbott's test is designed for use within seven days of the onset of symptoms. It gives results on a card reminiscent of the stick used in many over-the-counter pregnancy tests. If one line appears on the card, the patient is negative for the coronavirus; two lines indicates a positive result."

"Data that Abbott submitted to the FDA show that the test accurately detects 97.1 percent of positive samples and 98.5 percent of negative samples."

[squeezer]

Poking around the research lit today. Demographic research shows the average life expectancy in the U.S. has already been reduced 0.4 years. They estimate the premature deaths in the U.S. have resulted in 1.5 million years of potential life lost. Preprint, still in peer review.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.06.20147009v1

[bedlamite]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwxdwxi_ayA

That should clear things up.

[Papa Lazarou]

Christmas day. dad hands you a present. it certainly *feels* like AstraZeneca's ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. heart pounding, you unwrap it. out falls the Moderna mRNA-1273 injection. the blood drains from your face. "just like you wanted!", says dad. you nod, fighting back the tears.

(shamelessly stolen from Alex Heaney)

[Baxter]

Here's an update from Wisconsin.

I just saw this report that hospitals in Green Bay, Wisconsin and close by areas are nearing capacity. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/09/28/wisconsin-coronavirus-green-bay-fox-valley-outbreaks-worsen/3562169001/ I haven't seen such in the Milwaukee metro. But if that should happen, I'll probably not take any extra risks that might require hospitalization.

Chicago's current quarantine order applies to Wisconsin. It's been on and off again, and it's back on as I'm writing. https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/covid-19/home/emergency-travel-order.html

And the Governor's recent indoor mask mandate is apparently being challenged in court by some whiny crybabies.

Here's a rant for ya: My grandfather wasn't a whiny crybaby when he skipped college graduation to fight WWI. My father wasn't a whiny crybaby when he went straight from high school to fight WWII. I've had an easy life, but I'm not gonna be a whiny crybaby when the only thing I've ever been asked to do is wear a mask to stop a pandemic from spreading.