COVID-19 Video

[bedlamite]

https://twitter.com/alyankovic/status/1234923352810119168

[Skee]

Ooh, my little sickly one
Sickly one
Looks like you’ve contracted some of
MY CORONA
Ooh, your life will soon be done
Soon be done
When you kick the bucket from
MY CORONA

Yeah, no, sorry. Not gonna do "My Corona."

 

[jadziadax8]

Brilliant!

[Vulcanbill]

He doesn't have to do it cuz every one of us heard him do it in our heads.  Close enough. 

[Doug Just Doug]

Something to keep in mind when thinking about such things: mortality rate isn't the same as survival rate.  A disease with a predicted mortality rate of 2% does NOT mean that an infected person is expected to survive 98% of the time.  Rather, it means that for a given population, over a given period of time, 2% are expected to die from the disease (note that the population and time values are seldom included in media reporting, which contributes to the confusion.)  I know some folks here know that, but it seems the vast majority of people out there don't.

[Papa Lazarou]

also, the maximum infection rate is unlikely to go past 20% of the population.

[mr.awesome]

SARS is a Carona Virus too. take care of yourself and take precautions and you'll likely be fine.

As Dan (the Scientist) explained it to me, is that the name "Corona" means "crown" and is the umbrella name for the virus. Then you have the "sub-viruses" (my name for it), like SARS, MERS, Covid 19 that all are grouped underneath "Corona".

Wiki has some good explanations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2

HTH 

I knew it was all related to the Umbrella Corporation!!   
https://youtu.be/VKAvIv5-cxw

Today i had to quote a job at a GM plant. I had to sign a form stating i had not been to any of the highly infected areas or have been in contact with anyone who has. 

[Black Hills]

Something to keep in mind when thinking about such things: mortality rate isn't the same as survival rate.  A disease with a predicted mortality rate of 2% does NOT mean that an infected person is expected to survive 98% of the time.  Rather, it means that for a given population, over a given period of time, 2% are expected to die from the disease (note that the population and time values are seldom included in media reporting, which contributes to the confusion.)  I know some folks here know that, but it seems the vast majority of people out there don't.

they are claiming a CFR(case fatality rate) of 2.3% is that not 2.3% of those with the disease?

[CLAY]

Something to keep in mind when thinking about such things: mortality rate isn't the same as survival rate.  A disease with a predicted mortality rate of 2% does NOT mean that an infected person is expected to survive 98% of the time.  Rather, it means that for a given population, over a given period of time, 2% are expected to die from the disease (note that the population and time values are seldom included in media reporting, which contributes to the confusion.)  I know some folks here know that, but it seems the vast majority of people out there don't.

they are claiming a CFR(case fatality rate) of 2.3% is that not 2.3% of those with the disease?

Also, doesn't that 2.3% include China and other third world countries?  That won't be the rate in more modern countries.

[chornbe]

Something to keep in mind when thinking about such things: mortality rate isn't the same as survival rate.  A disease with a predicted mortality rate of 2% does NOT mean that an infected person is expected to survive 98% of the time.  Rather, it means that for a given population, over a given period of time, 2% are expected to die from the disease (note that the population and time values are seldom included in media reporting, which contributes to the confusion.)  I know some folks here know that, but it seems the vast majority of people out there don't.

they are claiming a CFR(case fatality rate) of 2.3% is that not 2.3% of those with the disease?

Also, doesn't that 2.3% include China and other third world countries?  That won't be the rate in more modern countries.

Last time I looked at the numbers, due to population density and rate of infection/spreading, mainland china's mortality rate was something like 18%. ~2.3% is a world-wide average, which is encouraging *compared* to some of the concentration-center numbers, but is painfully more "dangerous" compared to the general flu with a mortality rate somewhere around .1% world wide. But then again, millions upon millions get the flu every year, and we're still talking a tiny fraction of that getting covid, in terms of absolute numbers.

In summary, while "only" a relatively small number of deaths have occurred so far (absolute numbers), the death rate is very, very high (percentages), all compared to flu.

I suspect that while the absolute numbers continue to rise, at a slowing rate, the death rate will decrease over time as we get better at treatment and prevention.

More than a few "experts" in the field (I use quotes because I'm referencing people whose credentials I haven't tracked down myself) have suggested that when this is all over, something like 90% of all humanity will have been exposed to the virus.

[mr.awesome]

It is just the dog shaking off the fleas. We are but a parasite on this beautiful planet that we are fucking up.

[Skee]

Brilliant!

Check out Stephen Colbert’s Friday night clip “The Bug Boat” done to the tune of The Love Boat.

I’m sure it’s on utube somewhere by now. 

[miles]

I've read the covid-19 outbreak as "the revenge of the pangolins".

[st2sam]

Geeze, how quickly we forget.

Remember the swine flu? 

[Papa Lazarou]

Geeze, how quickly we forget.

Remember the swine flu? 

I caught that. It was like a cheapo version of real flu.

[Cookie]

It is just the dog shaking off the fleas. We are but a parasite on this beautiful planet that we are fucking up.

Whenever someone tells me "WE MUST SAVE THE PLANET!!!"
I simply say that the planet will be just fine once it gets rid of us.

[squeezer]

Geeze, how quickly we forget.

Remember the swine flu? 

I caught that. It was like a cheapo version of real flu.

0.5% death rate (5 times higher than regular flu). 22 million infected and 108,000 dead in first 8 months or so. It kinda sorta gives you a sense of where we might be headed. Sort of.

[maddjack]

One thing not being talked about much,is the amount of damage it does to the lungs of those who survived. From what I am reading,it is in quite a few cases,pretty bad.

[viffergyrl]

One thing not being talked about much,is the amount of damage it does to the lungs of those who survived. From what I am reading,it is in quite a few cases,pretty bad.

The other thing not talked about much are the people who are asymptomatic, yet test positive for COVID19. The NYT interviewed several people from the Diamond Princess, one of whom has had no symptoms, but tested positive. He's in isolation until he has two negative tests in a row.

Bear in mind that the only reason he got tested was that he was on the DP. So this brings up some interesting questions:

1. Are there false positives with the test and why?
2. Are there people naturally resistant?
3. What is the percentage of asymptomatic people (carriers) in the wild?

We have our first presumptive case here in Ventura county. Waiting to be confirmed by the CDC. Only one out of 22 tested by county health.

Went to Target the other day, looking for hand sanitizer. They were out. Fortunately I have the stuff to make my own. Plenty of other stuff to cover any self-imposed isolation. But just watching things closely.

[Mrs. DantesDame]

I am waiting for the US to finally realize just what kind of shitstorm is headed their way... and if they can act fast enough, despite having the advantage of watching "the rest of the world" already trying to deal with it.

[bedlamite]

I am waiting for the US to finally realize just what kind of shitstorm is headed their way... and if they can act fast enough, despite having the advantage of watching "the rest of the world" already trying to deal with it.

Yep. Also, false and conflicting info from official sources in the US is just going to make things worse.

A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals, and you know it.

[Cookie]

Am I going to die from this any time soon?

[bedlamite]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBiz7sQvzWI

[squeezer]

I am waiting for the US to finally realize just what kind of shitstorm is headed their way... and if they can act fast enough, despite having the advantage of watching "the rest of the world" already trying to deal with it.

Not likely. We're still lagging the rest of the world in testing with our unexplained decision to be the only country in the world to not use the testing kits produced by WHO, instead dumping it on a depleted CDC, delaying deployment (hey, that was a nice bit of alliteration) and still leaving us with a critical shortage. That kind of inept management hasn't really even been much of a topic of conversation.

It sure would be nice to have an actual public health expert in charge of HHS right now instead of a drug company lobbyist.

[bedlamite]

It sure would be nice to have an actual public health expert in charge of HHS right now instead of a drug company lobbyist.

While I agree, I also don't think it would matter. The bureaucracy will never allow things to happen quickly, which is what we need.

[CLAY]

It sure would be nice to have an actual public health expert in charge of HHS right now instead of a drug company lobbyist.

While I agree, I also don't think it would matter. The bureaucracy will never allow things to happen quickly, which is what we need.

As a rule, our government is reactive, not proactive.  We don't spend money on anything until it's too late, then we spend it on getting ready for the *last* thing, not the next thing.

I still predict it will not be a big deal over here.  Much lower numbers than the standard flu- and with warmer temps on the way too that will also make it harder to spread.

As for the H1N1- the "swine" flu of 2009, that was a big one.  One of the problems was that once again we weren't on front of alerting the people.  With this one we seem to be moreso.

[bedlamite]

I still predict it will not be a big deal over here.  Much lower numbers than the standard flu- and with warmer temps on the way too that will also make it harder to spread.

I hope you're right, but I don't think so.  If this wasn't as bad as the flu, do you really think China would have shut down?
The lower total numbers so far is because this is just getting started. The hospitalization rates and CFR is insanely higher than influenza.
The idea that warmer weather is going to curb this is bunk.  Vietnam has two seasons: HOT, and hot and rainy, and they are dealing with a serious outbreak: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-vietnam-quarantines-commune-of-10-000-people-to-curb-12431290

[Mrs. DantesDame]

If you want to see an interesting animation of the spread of Covid 19, check out this link: https://www.healthmap.org/covid-19/

The recent surge of cases is interesting, if not a little concerning. But then again, there seems to be a disconnect in how many people are tested, and how those tests are done.


Still in just over two months, with all of the advanced warning that governments have had, to see the sudden burst of cases is surprising.

And in Europe, there were a lot of school holidays that are just ending, meaning that families will be coming home and moving the virus around even more. I suspect that the schools in France and Switzerland will be closed in the coming week(s).

[Cookie]

https://www.healthmap.org/covid-19/

That is a tad bit freaky.

[chornbe]

I still predict it will not be a big deal over here.  Much lower numbers than the standard flu- and with warmer temps on the way too that will also make it harder to spread.

I hope you're right, but I don't think so.  If this wasn't as bad as the flu, do you really think China would have shut down?
The lower total numbers so far is because this is just getting started. The hospitalization rates and CFR is insanely higher than influenza.
The idea that warmer weather is going to curb this is bunk.  Vietnam has two seasons: HOT, and hot and rainy, and they are dealing with a serious outbreak: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-vietnam-quarantines-commune-of-10-000-people-to-curb-12431290

Maybe the fear will keep people from being stupid.

You go through life not really thinking of the flu as a killer. Ugh, I got the flu, few days off work, feel like crap.. boooo, then life goes on. That's at a worldwide average of .1% of the people to catch it dying, most of whom you just NEVER hear anything about because it's world wide, and many of those deaths aren't here, in our faces, close to home.

At a latest stat of 3.36% death rate, this thing is far, far, FAR more deadly (by the percentages) and the incubation is so long and silent... it's scary. It's a lot scarier than the flu. Maybe... maybe we need that to stay true, so people can just knuckle down and actually take the right precautions.

Maybe it's just ok that it's so scary for now. :\

[squeezer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBiz7sQvzWI

This one's even better. Kinda demonstrates the problem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA1wqjaeKj0&t=1s

[squeezer]

At a latest stat of 3.36% death rate, this thing is far, far, FAR more deadly (by the percentages) and the incubation is so long and silent... it's scary. It's a lot scarier than the flu. Maybe... maybe we need that to stay true, so people can just knuckle down and actually take the right precautions.

Maybe it's just ok that it's so scary for now. :\

Again, at this point, that death rate says more about the number of undetected cases than it does about how deadly it is. Based on what we know right now, epidemiologists are looking at that as the upper bound, the worst case scenario. The lowest estimate I've seen is 0,2%, which came from the head of virology at Harvard, but he admitted he actually as clueless as everybody else.

But, yeah, a little bit of scared is going to be just fine. But -- speaking here to the Target customers I saw yesterday -- panic buying of toilet paper is probably over the top.

[Skee]

What's freaky is wondering about whether you'll be one of the unfortunate statistics.

what's funny is I never worry about that when i climb on my bike.

Riding has a known risk component, COVID is an unknown hazard; hence the panic.

In vino veritas.

[SuperHans]

Still in just over two months, with all of the advanced warning that governments have had, to see the sudden burst of cases is surprising.

Is it really though? I mean, what are governments supposed to do in such a short period of time? The only real solution I see is to stop international travel and basically put people on lock down, which really doesn't seem like much of a solution.

[Papa Lazarou]

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[zer0netgain]

As a rule, our government is reactive, not proactive.  We don't spend money on anything until it's too late, then we spend it on getting ready for the *last* thing, not the next thing.

We have an imminent threat of sociological collapse via EMP or CME, but we still are not prepared.  At the heart of our electrical grid are massive transformers that are super expensive to build, take months to complete, and require advanced technology to fabricate.  If either of these happened (the latter being strong enough), these things would blow and the grid would remain down for months as we scramble to make replacements and get them installed.  It would be expensive, but we could make new ones and keep them stored near needed locations so we can get the grid back up in a few days, but politicians won’t approve the spending.  EMP attacks are most probable.  A CME is inevitable.  The experts agree the grid needs hardening and spares have to be ready to go on a moment’s notice, but nobody is listening.

[chornbe]

At a latest stat of 3.36% death rate, this thing is far, far, FAR more deadly (by the percentages) and the incubation is so long and silent... it's scary. It's a lot scarier than the flu. Maybe... maybe we need that to stay true, so people can just knuckle down and actually take the right precautions.

Maybe it's just ok that it's so scary for now. :\

Again, at this point, that death rate says more about the number of undetected cases than it does about how deadly it is. Based on what we know right now, epidemiologists are looking at that as the upper bound, the worst case scenario. The lowest estimate I've seen is 0,2%, which came from the head of virology at Harvard, but he admitted he actually as clueless as everybody else.

But, yeah, a little bit of scared is going to be just fine. But -- speaking here to the Target customers I saw yesterday -- panic buying of toilet paper is probably over the top.

I’ll find the site again and post it but I was looking at a site that had a pretty detailed breakdown of current active cases, cured and recovered cases, current death count, and those reported as critical or guarded condition. All the numbers began with current case count worldwide of about 103k when I was looking. It didn’t talk about “similar or related” etc. So if the numbers work out as accurate, that 3.36% is from the pool of known cases, assuming I was reading a valid site.

Side note: also spoke to my sister in law, a nurse in an old folks center, and they’re basically on ventilator and body bag holding pattern. Apparently the elderly death rate is pretty high

[Bounce]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBiz7sQvzWI

Fuck them for attacking ANYONE for something like that. It often depends on where you live as to how it's pronounced. Who used to pronounce homage as anything other than "O mauj" 30 years ago? I know we did.

You go through life not really thinking of the flu as a killer. Ugh, I got the flu, few days off work, feel like crap.. boooo, then life goes on. That's at a worldwide average of .1% of the people to catch it dying, most of whom you just NEVER hear anything about because it's world wide, and many of those deaths aren't here, in our faces, close to home.

Which is what I point out to casual comments like that. Such "flu" is more of a 24-48 hour virus and not the real influenza. If you get that, you'll know the difference. The kids were in middle school and I was in my 40s. We were all sick in bed for a full 2 weeks and can see how the lack of sleep added to the illness could kill "weaker" people. With the COVID it seems to bring with it a tendency to kick over into pneumonia very quickly (Woz's wife coughing blood for example).

We have an imminent threat of sociological collapse via EMP or CME, but we still are not prepared.  At the heart of our electrical grid are massive transformers that are super expensive to build, take months to complete, and require advanced technology to fabricate.  If either of these happened (the latter being strong enough), these things would blow and the grid would remain down for months as we scramble to make replacements and get them installed.  It would be expensive, but we could make new ones and keep them stored near needed locations so we can get the grid back up in a few days, but politicians won’t approve the spending.  EMP attacks are most probable.  A CME is inevitable.  The experts agree the grid needs hardening and spares have to be ready to go on a moment’s notice, but nobody is listening.

True. My brother used to work at a co-gen in the days where state-authorized monopolies within the energy community didn't want to work with co-gens until laws were passed that forced them to buy up excess capacity when it was pushed up into the grid. When the co-gen blew one of those transformers, they ran afoul of that conflict. Typically a primary power company will reach out to others around the country, get an on-hand spare, and send their "new" on back as a replacement once it was built. When you MAKE companies do things, they are less apt to volunteer to help you when you need it most. They were faced with being down for 6 months awaiting a replacement until they finally found someone willing to work with them.

[Bounce]

dupe

[Bounce]

...

[chornbe]

Interesting.

Covid is a virus. I thought a virus needs a host to remain active. I wasn't aware viruses could remain active without a host and suspended on/in cardboard. I thought that was one of things that can make bacteria more lethal-over-time than viruses in some cases; they can live a very long time in a dormant stage without requiring a host. Hmm... I guess I have to brush up on my virology and biology on such things.

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[maddjack]

China shut down for a couple of weeks,big red flag, China publicly shows the emergency building of two hospitals,( rumor in certain in the know circles via the eyes in the sky more like  6 to 8 ) big red flag. I feel the possibilities of how severe it could be are being drastically downplayed by governments to prevent widespread panic. The media is purveying enough to cause a minor panic. If we use common sense we can minimise here,but there are people who don't wash their hands after they piss let alone to prevent flu. So common sense,isn't so common. Which is the root of the problem when instructing the population how to minimise risk of infection. Just wonderful for people like me,with scarred up lungs ( from sickness) and age as a risk .

[chornbe]

China shut down for a couple of weeks,big red flag, China publicly shows the emergency building of two hospitals,( rumor in certain in the know circles via the eyes in the sky more like  big red flag. I feel the possibilities of how severe it could be are being drastically downplayed by governments to prevent widespread panic. The media is purveying enough to cause a minor panic. If we use common sense we can minimise here,but there are people who don't wash their hands after they piss let alone to prevent flu. So common sense,isn't so common. Which is the root of the problem when instructing the population how to minimise risk of infection. Just wonderful for people like me,with scarred up lungs ( from sickness) and age as a risk .

Eh... maybe we just all get it, kill off the weak, strengthen the herd, so next time those who lived through it will already know they're more resistant

[Papa Lazarou]

Interesting.

Covid is a virus. I thought a virus needs a host to remain active. I wasn't aware viruses could remain active without a host and suspended on/in cardboard. I thought that was one of things that can make bacteria more lethal-over-time than viruses in some cases; they can live a very long time in a dormant stage without requiring a host. Hmm... I guess I have to brush up on my virology and biology on such things.

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Tis a joke. but viruses can remain alive on surfaces for a while. no idea how long this one can. a day or two I would guess.

[Skee]

China shut down for a couple of weeks,big red flag, China publicly shows the emergency building of two hospitals,( rumor in certain in the know circles via the eyes in the sky more like  big red flag. I feel the possibilities of how severe it could be are being drastically downplayed by governments to prevent widespread panic. The media is purveying enough to cause a minor panic. If we use common sense we can minimise here,but there are people who don't wash their hands after they piss let alone to prevent flu. So common sense,isn't so common. Which is the root of the problem when instructing the population how to minimise risk of infection. Just wonderful for people like me,with scarred up lungs ( from sickness) and age as a risk .

Eh... maybe we just all get it, kill off the weak, strengthen the herd, so next time those who lived through it will already know they're more resistant

Maybe then things will go back to normal & I'll be able to take a crap without setting my arse on fire afterwards.. 

[bedlamite]

Tis a joke. but viruses can remain alive on surfaces for a while. no idea how long this one can. a day or two I would guess.

CDC says the range of persistence on surfaces was less than five minutes to nine days.

[bedlamite]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBiz7sQvzWI

Fuck them for attacking ANYONE for something like that. It often depends on where you live as to how it's pronounced. Who used to pronounce homage as anything other than "O mauj" 30 years ago? I know we did.

I would agree with you except for one small detail, that's exactly the kind of crap AOC used to do when she was on TYT. It's a dose of her own medicine.

[miles]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBiz7sQvzWI

Fuck them for attacking ANYONE for something like that. It often depends on where you live as to how it's pronounced. Who used to pronounce homage as anything other than "O mauj" 30 years ago? I know we did.

I would agree with you except for one small detail, that's exactly the kind of crap AOC used to do when she was on TYT. It's a dose of her own medicine.

Links?

[OHScot]

OK what the heck is the difference between a Virus and a Disease?   Why is it interchangeable on the TV?

[chornbe]

OK what the heck is the difference between a Virus and a Disease?   Why is it interchangeable on the TV?

virus ⊆ disease