COVID-19 Video

[maddjack]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOPvuGZO_Fs

We have achieved

  Its so stupid , its funny and sad at the same time. i couldn't even understand the one woman when she spoke whatever language she was speaking.

[SuperHans]

Wife went to the store here in southern Maryland this morning. The place was a mad house she said. One of the employees said people were lined up outside waiting to get in the store a couple of hours before they opened.

There's all kinds of rumors flying around that the government is going to shutdown the entire country for one week. I'm sure this is all hysteria, but people are starting to get a little crazy.

[bedlamite]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOPvuGZO_Fs

We have achieved

  Its so stupid , its funny and sad at the same time. i couldn't even understand the one woman when she spoke whatever language she was speaking.

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[Black Hills]

the gov. just announced that all K-12 schools will be shutdown next week?

[Baxter]

Lots of events are closing or postponing.  The Mama Tried motorcycle show and concert event has postponed to a date TBA.   

Motorcycle riding probably has a low risk of disease transmission, just dirty gas pump handles.   

[chornbe]

Prez Cheeto will announce state of national emergency today at or after 3pm Eastern (sources are reporting).

[Skee]

Lots of events are closing or postponing.  The Mama Tried motorcycle show and concert event has postponed to a date TBA.   

Motorcycle riding probably has a low risk of disease transmission, just dirty gas pump handles.   

And don’t swallow any flies

[CLAY]

maybe I'll just go hide out in the woods and find a cave to live in until this is over?

Sadly, it is ENDEMIC.  Meaning it will FOREVER be with us.  I suppose if you can hold out until a vaccine is created, you'll have an effective immune response without first catching the disease, but hiding out and not getting it won't protect you from getting it later if there's no vaccine.

Not true. 

If the initial wave of the virus affects a bunch of people, they develop immunity after surviving it.  If you hide long enough for that to happen, there would be no one left to give it to you.  Herd immunity.  Enough have had it that it won't pass through again.  It's why the Spanish Flu, H1N1, name-the-virus hasn't come back through.  They got enough people the first time that there aren't enough to spread it again and it goes away.

I'm curious who is going to get it here first.  Prolly me given my exposure load.  If I do, I'll keep you updated.

We don't know yet if it's that kind of bug. There's no true immunity to the rhinovirus even though everyone gets it. All the time. Repeatedly. Every year. Sometimes several times a year. We're not really all that terribly immune to MOST viruses, certainly not naturally. A very small handful from the big pool of deadly, scary, painful, DNA-altering stuff.

The problem with covid is exactly all these unknowns; this is a new and novel species jump - and yes, that's a huge deal - and that's basically the underpinnings of a species ending event in all sorts of works of fiction; it's a scary idea for fiction exactly because it could very well end up being completely true one day.

Humanity may or may not come out of the other end of this with some level of immunity... or may not at all, ever. We don't know.

It's not about whether you get it. It's about how quickly it spreads from you to the 100, 200, 500 people you may encounter through a normal day or week, and how quickly the disease can overwhelm our medical infrastructure 'til we develop a vaccine, or determine if we can ever build natural immunity to it.

Go back and look through a history of dangerous, identified pathogens; viruses are scary, and again, MOST of them aren't something we have natural immunities to. Even now. Even after having them floating around society for centuries, and longer.

The Rhinovirus constantly mutates- it changes, which is why we can get it each year.  Could that happen to the Coronoa virus?  I suppose it could, but this virus doesn't have a history of doing that quickly, like the common cold.

MOST viruses don't affect people at all.  Those that do, we either die or we DO develop an immunity to- that's how the body works. 

[biking sailor]

Along with the washing hands and social distancing stuff, we also need to make sure we are getting mild exercise, plenty of sleep, a little sunshine and eat well to boost the immune system. And it would be a good time to try to quit smoking, unless that would stress you out too much. Healthy people seem to survive it with less issues.

Lets all try to be in the healthy group that minimizes the bad effects of this bastard virus.

[viffergyrl]

To follow up on what Clay said and compare apples to apples.....SARS has essentially disappeared. There is no vaccine for SARS because it never became a thing. Now there is a big difference between the two viruses.... SARS was more lethal but wasn't as transmissible - the number of cases was 100-fold less (at this time). And it was traced back to a very specific group of bats (no research lab leak here). But you can look this up on Wikipedia just like I did.

MERS is still around, and yet... isn't a thing either. Surprising as it is lethal in about a third of the cases. Don't kiss your camel. And don't hang out with Egyptian tomb bats either. But MERS is more different than SARS or COVID19 (aka SARS-COV-2). Oh... and no research lab leak here either. Bats, yet again. And camels (seriously).

Yes, I'm concerned, but not alarmist. The media has that job covered. I'm just appalled by the lack of knowledge that our society now has. This is biology 101 type of stuff or even junior high or high school health class or basic science.

[Cookie]

I'm fairly overwhelmed by all of this. So much input. A bit of fact smeared over with the fear-mongering of the media.
Finally I Googled "I'm afraid of the coronavirus".

This is the result I found most understandable.

My apologies if it's been posted previously. Like I said, so much input.

https://www.diamandis.com/blog/coronavirus-fear-vs-reality

[Skee]

some very useful information inthere

Q: Should I avoid Corona beer?

A: There’s no coronavirus-linked reason to pass on Corona beer — but in my opinion, it’s not very tasty.

[squeezer]

So, new trend. People are having drinks together via videoconferencing and calling it quarantinis.

This kind of thing will get us through.

[Papa Lazarou]

Well, I've got a mild virus. Swollen salivary glans, feel a bit unwell. Is it Corona virus? No. No cough. So, no self isolation and back to work. There's a lot of minor winter bugs around, including more severe ones like flu.

I received a helpful email from a medical colleague in Japan yesterday. If you can hold your breath for 10 seconds without coughing-it's not C 19.

For people asking if it mutates-yes it probably will. Most viruses mutate 6 monthly. But it's not going have time to mutate during this outbreak.

Government is very sensibly in the "delay" phase, to ease the burden on the NHS (which they have spent the last 10 years very stupidly cutting to ribbons). Peak over here is likely to be late April to mid June.

[Cookie]

I just left our local supermarket. I did actually need to pick up some things and while I was there I stocked up on canned soups and frozen vegetables. It's amazing to see how many people are clearing the shelves of perishable food items. There is no meat on the shelves. Well, there is no real meat. The plant-based food section is quite well stocked. It seems that even with the panic that is taking over our society, nobody eats that shit.

[zer0netgain]

The Rhinovirus constantly mutates- it changes, which is why we can get it each year.  Could that happen to the Coronoa virus?

I believe it’s already mutated in that there are two variants of the virus now.

[Skee]

I believe it’s already mutated in that there are two variants of the virus now.

That has been reported.  I have also read that as a class, corona viruses do not mutate like rhinovirus does.

All part of the panic intentionally created by the media to undermine the economy.  Just wait until the weather warms up.   

[It's that not too subtle touch of cynicism that gets me into trouble.]  On my way to the gulag if the aliens don't pick me up first.

I just left our local supermarket. ... It's amazing to see how many people are clearing the shelves of perishable food items.

That's explains why everyone is stocking up on TP.  They are going to need it after the power goes out.

[Skee]

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway.

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow transmission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.

“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

Those actions include testing for the virus, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations.

The Times obtained screenshots of the C.D.C. presentation, which has not been released publicly, from someone not involved in the meetings. The Times then verified the data with several scientists who did participate. The scenarios were marked valid until Feb. 28, but remain “roughly the same,” according to Ira Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida. He has joined in meetings of the group.

Dr. Longini said the scenarios he helped the C.D.C. refine had not been publicly disclosed because there remained uncertainty about certain key aspects, including how much transmission could occur from people who showed no symptoms or had only mild ones.

“We’re being very, very careful to make sure we have scientifically valid modeling that’s drawing properly on the epidemic and what’s known about the virus,” he said, warning that simple calculations could be misleading or even dangerous. “You can’t win. If you overdo it, you panic everybody. If you underdo it, they get complacent. You have to be careful.”

But without an understanding of how the nation’s top experts believe the virus could ravage the country, and what measures could slow it, it remains unclear how far Americans will go in adopting — or accepting — socially disruptive steps that could also avert deaths. And how quickly they will act.

Studies of previous epidemics have shown that the longer officials waited to encourage people to distance and protect themselves, the less useful those measures were in saving lives and preventing infections.

The four scenarios have different parameters, which is why the projections range so widely. They variously assume that each person with the coronavirus would infect either two or three people; that the hospitalization rate would be either 3 percent or 12; and that either 1 percent or a quarter of a percent of people experiencing symptoms would die. Those assumptions are based on what is known so far about how the virus has behaved in other contexts, including in China.

[Vulcanbill]

West Virginia still no reported cases. Only state without.

Yeeeessss. Finally, something good.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/?iid=ob_mobile_article_footer_expansion

[Papa Lazarou]

West Virginia still no reported cases. Only state without.

Yeeeessss. Finally, something good.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/?iid=ob_mobile_article_footer_expansion

Just like Indonesia. Remarkably disease free there as well.

[Papa Lazarou]

ha ha

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html?referringSource=articleShare&fbclid=IwAR3mXQLpcSVSstxDUnOgk5ctBJzRO2A0MbZVhS6dL8MOgnkwU5wxWJPZCyk

[zer0netgain]

ha ha

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html?referringSource=articleShare&fbclid=IwAR3mXQLpcSVSstxDUnOgk5ctBJzRO2A0MbZVhS6dL8MOgnkwU5wxWJPZCyk

Silly wabbit, only retailers can price gouge and get away with it.

[Vulcanbill]

West Virginia still no reported cases. Only state without.

Yeeeessss. Finally, something good.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/?iid=ob_mobile_article_footer_expansion

Just like Indonesia. Remarkably disease free there as well.

Do they have a natural methamphetamine resistance as well?

[Andrew]

I just got this, so I bet the stores are going to get slammed more than they have been. On the bright side the traffic should all but disappear.
Too bad I am part of the government's "Essential Services"

 
San Mateo County Health Shelter In Place Order

SMC Alert <noreply@everbridge.net>
6:58 PM (4 minutes ago)
to me

SMC Alert - San Mateo County's Alert System
The Health Officer of San Mateo County has issued a shelter-in-place order, effective 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, March 17, 2020, to help prevent the spread of COVID-19. For more information on the order, including exceptions for essential activities and FAQs, please visit www.smcgov.org

[chornbe]

I couldn't find a second source, but I read earlier today in a scrolling news feed on some foreign tv station while at the pharmacy (tv in waiting area) that there have been "reported cases of reinfection a few months after getting over the virus". O_o

Again, I couldn't find a second source.

I assume it's the same everywhere, but everything here has become the typical stuff; non-essential personnel stay home, non-essential businesses *should* stay closed, food places will be ordered to close dining areas, and prepare for take-out/drive-through only, and so on. I know a couple people with small businesses that have decided they can't and won't try to survive this, and have made now the time to close their doors forever. One's a restaurant, one is a small art / curio consignment shop / gallery.

The world is changing.

** edit **

Also: https://9to5mac.com/2020/03/16/itunes-theater-rentals-universal/?fbclid=IwAR27iJ0FTr3NBTBvWNCIsGQ-sIXgmOG62QnK_8imrRMjeZfzfHB11Qz6oIY

I expect this to be a continuing thing after the virus alert has relaxed, and this lockdown to be seen as the catalyst for normalizing these rental models.

[Papa Lazarou]

no more going to theatres or pubs. what?!

phew, that's only in London.

[SuperHans]

I expect this to be a continuing thing after the virus alert has relaxed, and this lockdown to be seen as the catalyst for normalizing these rental models.

Apparently bands are beginning to live stream their concerts since they can no longer have large crowds at venues.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/code-orange-gnash-against-me-diplo-stream-shows-coronavirus-1492333%3famp=1

[Mrs. DantesDame]

no more going to theatres or pubs. what?!

phew, that's only in London.

Not just London 

[Vulcanbill]

I expect this to be a continuing thing after the virus alert has relaxed, and this lockdown to be seen as the catalyst for normalizing these rental models.

Apparently bands are beginning to live stream their concerts since they can no longer have large crowds at venues.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/code-orange-gnash-against-me-diplo-stream-shows-coronavirus-1492333%3famp=1

Click on link.  Some video somewhere starts to auto play.  Immediately close entire website regardless of how interesting it might be.  Man I hate that. 

[squeezer]

I couldn't find a second source, but I read earlier today in a scrolling news feed on some foreign tv station while at the pharmacy (tv in waiting area) that there have been "reported cases of reinfection a few months after getting over the virus". O_o

Again, I couldn't find a second source.

(snip)

There have been a few scattered reports but the general consensus is that these were people that were released before they recovered. They're not reinfections but relapses of the same infection. Not confirmed either way, but the relapse seems more likely.

[squeezer]

I just got this, so I bet the stores are going to get slammed more than they have been. On the bright side the traffic should all but disappear.
Too bad I am part of the government's "Essential Services"

 
San Mateo County Health Shelter In Place Order

SMC Alert <noreply@everbridge.net>
6:58 PM (4 minutes ago)
to me

SMC Alert - San Mateo County's Alert System
The Health Officer of San Mateo County has issued a shelter-in-place order, effective 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, March 17, 2020, to help prevent the spread of COVID-19. For more information on the order, including exceptions for essential activities and FAQs, please visit www.smcgov.org

Yeah, I heard you all just got that. We're waiting for the shelter in place orders to work their way down the coast. Actually, it will probably go L.A., skip to San Diego, and then back up to us here in OC because our county's public health dept. still has their thumb up their butt.

[squeezer]

^^^
Oops. Bad guess. Orange County was just shut down. The headline: "Bans All Public, Private Gatherings - Including Work - Outside Single Household"

[leeo45]

The Rhinovirus constantly mutates- it changes, which is why we can get it each year.  Could that happen to the Coronoa virus?

I believe it’s already mutated in that there are two variants of the virus now.

This type of virus, and generally all RNA viruses, tend to mutate at a very fast rate due to the way they reproduce in the host cells.    One of the keys to an epidemic is whether the changes make it more, less, or equally virulent and dangerous to humans.  Experts believe that mutations to a more deadly strain were a big part of what drove the death rate of the 'Spanish Flu' pandemic in 1918.    Here are the known and tracked mutations of SARS-CoV-2 since the first cases in Wuhan in December 2019.   It seems that all of these identified strains are behaving similarly.

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If you want to jump down the rabbit hole, here is a link to the site:   https://nextstrain.org/ncov     

You can slide the right side of the date range and actually see the cases spread across the globe as well as the progression of the genetic mutations.   Highlight the node on each branch in the Phylogeny chart and see where that strain was identified and what change(s) took place.   

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[Papa Lazarou]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china/ar-BB11llda?ocid=spartanntp

[1KPerDay]

FYI from my brother the ER doc if interested:


Hey guys, I have been meaning to send a text out to you especially after the meeting I had this morning with the other doctors at my hospital (by phone). It was all about the coronavirus. Initially I think we all felt this was just a dumb virus and there was a lot of social over reactions, however we are seeing two things happening, number one this is more deadly and more contagious than influenza by a long shot, And hospitals are already being overwhelmed. People are getting very sick, and especially the elderly, by which I mean anyone older than 65.

All of the data shows that by decreasing the rate of spread we will prevent the high spike in transmission which will help hospitals not be overwhelmed. Which helps people not die.

New data shows about 25% of infected patients don’t have symptoms, but they are highly infectious. Especially in the first week of infection.

We are also now realizing that there are likely thousands of true positive cases that aren’t reported, and I think we will all have friends or family that end up being infected by this virus.

My guidance Would be to not have any get togethers. I think we need to understand how serious this really is.

Happy to discuss this further and answer any questions. It is a daily change of information, the situation is very fluid.

[chornbe]

Gosh. Imagine that.

[leeo45]

The output of a fairly sophisticated, peer-reviewed model was published in Science on Monday about the cases in China.    It estimated that in the period prior to the 23 January travel restrictions only 14% of cases were identified.   

These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

It is especially true that children and teenagers can be infected, be contagious, and show very few if any symptoms.   

[PatM]

I don't know if this is fake news or what but I read that amongst other drugs (experimental) being fast paced, Hydroxychloroquine is being tested with promising results. From what I gather this is an old medication used to treat malaria.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marybethpfeiffer/2020/03/18/science-works-to-use-old-cheap-drugs-to-attack-coronavirus--it-might-just-work/#4b3dbf0b5c49

[SuperHans]

I had read the same thing somewhere else.

[CLAY]

There is SO much misinformation out there it is amazing.  Even professionals are getting varying information, as amply demonstrated by this thread.

Wash your hands, keep the social distancing, and be ready for this to go on for at least a couple months now.

Remember flattening the curve doesn't change the amount of infected, it just spreads it over a longer time.

I'm starting to think that our reaction to the virus has the potential to destroy many more lives in the end than the actual virus.  For example there are scads of local businesses that will not recover from this- and there will be hundreds of thousands that will be getting no income during the duration.

Of course I could be wrong.   I hope I am.

[chornbe]

For example there are scads of local businesses that will not recover from this- and there will be hundreds of thousands that will be getting no income during the duration.

Of course I could be wrong.   I hope I am.

You're not. I'm seeing in my job and with customers and prospective customers. I have some friends who have small businesses; plans are already under way to cash out and call it quits because they run at such thin margins.

[PatM]

Interesting video

https://youtu.be/BIymfznD7YA

[Baxter]

I woke up this morning with more than my usual allergy-driven post-nasal drip.  It's most likely just a cold (been spending more time with school age kids).  But I spent some time with a bro-in-law who has been flying commercially every week for work, and a niece recently came down with strep.

So I'm really doing more social isolation, and chose to move into the guest room to reduce the risk to my wife.

[squeezer]

We both had nasty colds last week and stayed home. It was coronavirus because no fever, but you don't want to spread that stuff either because it makes others more vulnerable.

On the other hand, if you walk around with a cold right now, you can have fun scaring the pants off people.   

[chornbe]

A fun new game; run directly at strangers. Maybe they scream and run away. Maybe they shoot you. Life is chaos!!!!

[squeezer]

And in actual on-topic news:  KTM, Ducati, Yamaha, and several other manufacturers (primarily Euro) have shut down.

Most just until the end of the month. For now.

EDIT:  I think that was Yammie's Euro factories.

[zer0netgain]

Bristol VA/TN is so ravaged by the effects of COVID-19 that you can actually find available parking on State Street during peak hours. 

[Skee]

FDA issued 2 new guidances on hand sanitizers:

Temporary Policy for Preparation of Certain Alcohol-Based Hand Sanitizer Products During the Public Health Emergency (COVID-19)

Policy for Temporary Compounding of Certain Alcohol-Based Hand Sanitizer Products During the Public Health Emergency

LOL   This stuff is simple as sin to make.  I see a limited business opportunity here (for a moonshiner who has some kettles and simple bottling equipment and wants to go straight), all you need is carbopol, glycerin, NaOH, fragrance and alcohol, of course.

Then again, with the state (alcohol) stores in PA being closed, there's no need for them to change their business model.  All they need to do is expand their distribution network.

Then again, they face stiff competition.  Liquor stores in nearby states are running coupons in our local paper.  I'm surprised that isn't against the law, YET.

[mr.awesome]

One of our local breweries is making hand sanitizer.  Mainly for the healthcare providers and first responders. They have over a 1000 gals made already. Hats off to them for helping the healthcare community.
But of course if an individual stops by for a 4 pack of beer and a sandwich to go they will give you a bottle. Genius marketing. 

https://www.fox2detroit.com/video/665865

[Cookie]

Over the course of the last week we have developed and implemented a rather extensive policy and procedure for the separation of employees. It includes no more than six people in the break room at a time, one shift can't commingle with the other shift. We are using separate parking lots. Only so many at the time clock at a time. There are areas marked off signifying 6-foot intervals for walking and standing where there are groups such as meetings. We have established a perimeter that truckers must remain in as to decrease the influx of people into the plants. So, today I witnessed one of the women that works in the shipping department come out walk into the shipping area walk right up to one of the truckers, throw her arms around him and give him a big hug. She has no clue why three people said something and she's pissed at all of us. Yes, us. She says that she's not taking this virus thing seriously she's hugging all her church people and she doesn't see what the big deal is all about. Sweet Jesus.