COVID-19 Video

[CLAY]

You go through life not really thinking of the flu as a killer. Ugh, I got the flu, few days off work, feel like crap.. boooo, then life goes on. That's at a worldwide average of .1% of the people to catch it dying, most of whom you just NEVER hear anything about because it's world wide, and many of those deaths aren't here, in our faces, close to home.

Which is what I point out to casual comments like that. Such "flu" is more of a 24-48 hour virus and not the real influenza. If you get that, you'll know the difference. The kids were in middle school and I was in my 40s. We were all sick in bed for a full 2 weeks and can see how the lack of sleep added to the illness could kill "weaker" people. With the COVID it seems to bring with it a tendency to kick over into pneumonia very quickly (Woz's wife coughing blood for example).

We have an imminent threat of sociological collapse via EMP or CME, but we still are not prepared.  At the heart of our electrical grid are massive transformers that are super expensive to build, take months to complete, and require advanced technology to fabricate.  If either of these happened (the latter being strong enough), these things would blow and the grid would remain down for months as we scramble to make replacements and get them installed.  It would be expensive, but we could make new ones and keep them stored near needed locations so we can get the grid back up in a few days, but politicians won’t approve the spending.  EMP attacks are most probable.  A CME is inevitable.  The experts agree the grid needs hardening and spares have to be ready to go on a moment’s notice, but nobody is listening.

True. My brother used to work at a co-gen in the days where state-authorized monopolies within the energy community didn't want to work with co-gens until laws were passed that forced them to buy up excess capacity when it was pushed up into the grid. When the co-gen blew one of those transformers, they ran afoul of that conflict. Typically a primary power company will reach out to others around the country, get an on-hand spare, and send their "new" on back as a replacement once it was built. When you MAKE companies do things, they are less apt to volunteer to help you when you need it most. They were faced with being down for 6 months awaiting a replacement until they finally found someone willing to work with them.

Both of these.  I have read several times about the electrical infrastructure problem for a long time, especially in regards to a CME.  Once again, we will only respond.  Our history is full of those things- then we blame those who were in power when it went down.  So, just prepare on a personal level- and imagine what it could be like in large urban areas without power for more than a month. 

As for the REAL influenza?  About 7 years ago I missed my flu shot- kept putting it off.  I had influenza (as checked by a test at the doctor's) and missed my entire Christmas break.  It is more the 24-48 hours- at least that one was. It was brutal.  Fever, aches, chills, for more than a week.  I have one student out right now who tested positive- he's been out all last week.

I will never miss my vaccination again.

[squeezer]

By the way, as a morbid sideshow, watch the U.S. panic level crank up over the next couple of weeks. There should be a huge spike in cases as testing finally opens up.

Right now, people are aware that there are few cases by me in OC, a cluster in Seatlle, yada yada yada. What people aren't aware of is that as of early last week, 1500 people had been tested in the U.S. Not a typo. 1500. Guess why there aren't more reported cases.

South Korea has tested 140,000. The good news is that with that large sample, they've calculated a death rate of 0.6%, a tick higher than Swine flu, 6x worse than regular flu, nowhere near the worst case numbers being kicked around. It's going to suck. It won't be the end of civilization.


Great headline from The Chaser:

Laxatives sell out as hoarders try to make use of excess toilet paper

[miles]

I am coming to the conclusion that the lack of cogent response outside of China (and perhaps Indonesia) means that the covid-19 virus will become endemic, much as the flu or common cold are now.

I can't see an effective vaccine any time within the next si months at best, probably more like 12-18 months from now.  By that time, it will have spread worldwide and containment will simply be a forgotten concept.

So, with this in mind, hope that when you catch it (not really if) it'll be mild and you'll develop immunity until it mutates further.

[Papa Lazarou]

OK what the heck is the difference between a Virus and a Disease?   Why is it interchangeable on the TV?

dis-ease (literally, unease) is a word for anything that makes you feel unwell. a broken leg or a cold could be included.

the word has morphed over the years to mean something that makes you feel unwell and is the result of infection-so viral, fungal and bacterial infections. Although people still refer to non-infectious illnesses, such as cancer, as a disease, going back to its old meaning.

a virus is a non-cellular thing-debatable if it's alive or not-which may cause infection, which may cause disease. common viral infections are flu and colds. bacteria are most definitely alive. some cause disease, most don't. Fungi don't cause many diseases worth worrying about as they tend to be fairly easy to kill. unless you're a frog.

[viffergyrl]

Fungi don't cause many diseases worth worrying about as they tend to be fairly easy to kill. unless you're a frog.

Not exactly.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2125283-deadly-drug-resistant-candida-yeast-infection-spreads-in-the-us/

Viruses need a host to replicate or hide out. A virus will insert into a host DNA and become quiescent. This is one way how a host animal tolerates the virus.

[chornbe]

SouthBy was canceled, so... regardless of the EOEs here, people are taking it seriously. 2019's SouthBy added a gross $360M to Austin's economy.

[Mrs. DantesDame]

I'm glad that someone's taking this seriously....


ComicCon in Seattle is also postponed. About 100,000 people usually attend.

It might be overkill, sure. But I would rather err on the side of caution than have a full-blown deadly pandemic upon us.
At least here in Europe some of the governments are talking about financial assistance to businesses who can't operate due to the bans on large gatherings.

[radon222]

There've been a number of Marine Industry related conferences either cancelled or re-scheduled.  Including Oceanology International which is a big one in the UK.

[Cookie]

Nobody is invited to our house.

[Andrew]

We are taking it seriously enough to decomenate/wipe down all surfaces of every bus every night. The Cleaner/fuelers told me they smell the disinfectant in their sleep. But then at inner city transit, we are on the front line. 

Side note:I am home today, with a touch of the flu 
Looking out the window I can see the Princess Cruise ship heading into the SF Bay right now. Not that that adds up to much.

[viffergyrl]

I have to be careful. My mother is 94. She's in a high risk group. All their group activities have been cancelled at her independent living facility. All visitors must wash their hands upon arrival. Also group outings are cancelled.

I applaud these efforts without government mandates. Risk assessment and reasonable actions are happening at a local level.

[Mrs. DantesDame]

We are taking it seriously enough to decomenate/wipe down all surfaces of every bus every night. The Cleaner/fuelers told me they smell the disinfectant in their sleep. But then at inner city transit, we are on the front line. 

Side note:I am home today, with a touch of the flu 

Nothing like being on the front line to get hit by shrapnel 

Looking out the window I can see the Princess Cruise ship heading into the SF Bay right now. Not that that adds up to much.

I have two friends who just boarded a cruise ship leaving from Miami. Personally, I think they are crazy. 

[radon222]

I was talking to my Mom last night and she told me about one of the driver's for the Senion Center in her town.

He has Cruise scheduled for April and he's still not sure whether to cancel, or just go ahead and do it.  It's Mediterranean cruise that departs from Italy  .  Apparently pandemics aren't covered under Trip Insurance so if he cancels, he's completely SOL.

And keep in mind...this guy drives Senior Citizens to doctor's offices, and other appointments on a daily basis.....

[Papa Lazarou]

UK advice is now to self isolate if you get any cold or flu symptoms.

[Baxter]

UK advice is now to self isolate if you get any cold or flu symptoms.

That's generally good advice. But since my secret superhero identity is Allergy Man, I always have mild cold or flu symptoms.     It's a good thing that I'm kinda antisocial.

[jadziadax8]

UK advice is now to self isolate if you get any cold or flu symptoms.

That's generally good advice. But since my secret superhero identity is Allergy Man, I always have mild cold or flu symptoms.     It's a good thing that I'm kinda antisocial.

[Mrs. DantesDame]

UK advice is now to self isolate if you get any cold or flu symptoms.

That's generally good advice. But since my secret superhero identity is Allergy Man, I always have mild cold or flu symptoms.     It's a good thing that I'm kinda antisocial.

 

If Dan or I get it, then there's not much we can do other than to share it with each other and sit at home together, eating our way through the pantry and watching Netflix.

(the Swiss government also recommends self-isolation, and only calling your doctor (not visiting in person!) if you are really, really worried)

[viffergyrl]

UK advice is now to self isolate if you get any cold or flu symptoms.

That's generally good advice. But since my secret superhero identity is Allergy Man, I always have mild cold or flu symptoms.     It's a good thing that I'm kinda antisocial.

 

If Dan or I get it, then there's not much we can do other than to share it with each other and sit at home together, eating our way through the pantry and watching Netflix.

(the Swiss government also recommends self-isolation, and only calling your doctor (not visiting in person!) if you are really, really worried)

^This... although we have the RV which will become the quarantine/isolation ward if necessary.

[zer0netgain]

He has Cruise scheduled for April and he's still not sure whether to cancel, or just go ahead and do it.  It's Mediterranean cruise that departs from Italy  .  Apparently pandemics aren't covered under Trip Insurance so if he cancels, he's completely SOL.

Tough call.  What if he got a doctor's note saying he could not go?  Cancellation because of medical issues should qualify.

[CLAY]

We are taking an Alaskan cruise in early July.  Not worried.

[Skee]

Read a bunch of interesting stuff today while the market tanked.

Curious question meant to inspirer thought, not challenge: Millions upon millions of people living in tight proximity with weird climate conditions and purely numbers based weaknesses in quality food and sanitation aren’t enough to explain why all the wacky shit you read about happens n China and India? We dropped two nukes in Japan and they had a reactor blow up and still the level of freaky shit isn’t a blip on the radar compared to the two most overpopulated countries in the globe. Two headed babies. China and India. Weird super rare diseases. China and India. Recessive genes causing mutations. China and India. Wild life mutating at crazy rates. China and India.

Thoughts?

Here is one Opinion: Coronavirus: 5 reasons why so many pandemics begin in Asia or Africa

Here is an insightful discussion of mortality rates

Opinion: Why this epidemiologist is more worried about coronavirus than he was a month ago

And if all that isn't bad enough, now we have to worry about third-hand smoke.

Human transport of thirdhand tobacco smoke: A prominent source of hazardous air pollutants into indoor nonsmoking environments

[squeezer]

He has Cruise scheduled for April and he's still not sure whether to cancel, or just go ahead and do it.  It's Mediterranean cruise that departs from Italy  .  Apparently pandemics aren't covered under Trip Insurance so if he cancels, he's completely SOL.

Tough call.  What if he got a doctor's note saying he could not go?  Cancellation because of medical issues should qualify.

Funny you should mention that -- a friend just forwarded an email sent to her elderly mom from the doc with coronavirus advice. The doc said she'd be happy to write a medical note for anyone who wanted it but to be aware that airlines and cruise lines were ignoring them and that there was a little chance of a refund.

[squeezer]

I didn't know if this went here or You Laugh, You Lose.

[squeezer]

Here is an insightful discussion of mortality rates

Opinion: Why this epidemiologist is more worried about coronavirus than he was a month ago

That's a nice summary.   

[zer0netgain]

Funny you should mention that -- a friend just forwarded an email sent to her elderly mom from the doc with coronavirus advice. The doc said she'd be happy to write a medical note for anyone who wanted it but to be aware that airlines and cruise lines were ignoring them and that there was a little chance of a refund.

Not surprising, but the wording of the contract controls.  If the doctor note meets the terms set in the contract, they don’t have a choice.  You may have to go to court, but if they don’t comply, have a lawyer draft a nasty-gram warning them of the risk of litigation over breach of contract, that their practice will be reported to the FTC (Federal Trade Commission) and possible class action suit by ALL the parties who they are refusing to honor their end of the contract.

Also, with a pandemic going on, entire cruises could (and probably should) be cancelled on the basis that the pandemic frustrates performance of the contract.  Understandably, they don’t want to lose the income from these trips, but if they are sued for people getting infected and dying because of conditions on the ship, even if they win in court, it will get expensive.  There’s no way to sanitize a ship in the time normally allowed for turn around in port.

While I know the useless WHO won’t call this a pandemic for market reasons, they are warning anyone particularly vulnerable to avoid crowds, planes and cruises.  It’s pretty much a given that flying and cruising is a bad idea right now in general and for some a definite NO.

[zer0netgain]

An interesting site from Drudge...
 
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
Mobile version...
 
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

[Cookie]

That spells it out for those of us who are not great thinkers.

[Bryan.VFR]

After today, the university that I work at is closing for two weeks. The official word is there are no confirmed cases on campus, but they learned that some people may have been exposed to a confirmed case after attending an out of state conference. Idiot(s)! So I get to 'work from home' for two weeks. Though being in IT desktop support, I don't really have anything to do without anybody on campus. 

[Bounce]

SouthBy was canceled

So it's not all bad news?

Nobody is invited to our house.

You seem to infer that this is a new thing. That's SOP here.

And if all that isn't bad enough, now we have to worry about third-hand smoke.

Human transport of thirdhand tobacco smoke: A prominent source of hazardous air pollutants into indoor nonsmoking environments

Creating a generation of wimps. Get out there and eat some mud pies and get strong!

[Black Hills]

It's the end of the world as we know it, We're all gonna DIE!

[Cookie]

It's about fucking time.

[zer0netgain]

It's about fucking time.

God knows I'm tired of waiting for it to come. 

[PatM]

I think this is the best comprehensive explanation of the subject. It's long and thorough. The short version is don't over react, wash your hands and avoid touching your face. If you get sick, don't go to the ER unless you're running a high fever, have difficulty keeping fluid down and are short of breath. They don't have any vaccine or treatment. Also numbers, he believes the South Koreans are closer to the "real" mortality rate at 0,7%.   
https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fdrmarkstanley%2Fposts%2F10216896547069895&width=500"

He has Cruise scheduled for April and he's still not sure whether to cancel, or just go ahead and do it.  It's Mediterranean cruise that departs from Italy  .  Apparently pandemics aren't covered under Trip Insurance so if he cancels, he's completely SOL.

I'm booked for a tour in Italy - Slovenia - Austria, Germany and Switzerland this summer. The advice I got from my travel agent is to wait. If you cancel you may be SOL. If they cancel is another ball game.  Anyways Italy is quarantined as of this last Sunday until Apr 5. We will see what happens.

[Papa Lazarou]

I think this is the best comprehensive explanation of the subject. It's long and thorough. The short version is don't over react, wash your hands and avoid touching your face. If you get sick, don't go to the ER unless you're running a high fever, have difficulty keeping fluid down and are short of breath. They don't have any vaccine or treatment. Also numbers, he believes the South Koreans are closer to the "real" mortality rate at 0,7%.   
https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fdrmarkstanley%2Fposts%2F10216896547069895&width=500"

He has Cruise scheduled for April and he's still not sure whether to cancel, or just go ahead and do it.  It's Mediterranean cruise that departs from Italy  .  Apparently pandemics aren't covered under Trip Insurance so if he cancels, he's completely SOL.

I'm booked for a tour in Italy - Slovenia - Austria, Germany and Switzerland this summer. The advice I got from my travel agent is to wait. If you cancel you may be SOL. If they cancel is another ball game.  Anyways Italy is quarantined as of this last Sunday until Apr 5. We will see what happens.

Italy should have peaked by then and the infection rate calmed right down. We're expecting April-early June to be our peak.

[CLAY]

Granted all the cases aren't done, but if you look at the current US numbers (as of 3/10 4:00pm ET) (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6): 

805 confirmed, 28 dead, 8 recovered, and you subtract the 23 that died IN A FREAKING NURSING HOME (the most susceptible) that brings the death rate down to 0.62%.

Obviously that's not perfect statistics, but interesting.

[PatM]

Good news from a friend in Italy: Zero contagi a Codogno, è prima volta Codogno is thought to be ground zero in Italy. Translated it means that for the first time they have no new infection.

[zer0netgain]

He has Cruise scheduled for April and he's still not sure whether to cancel, or just go ahead and do it.  It's Mediterranean cruise that departs from Italy  .  Apparently pandemics aren't covered under Trip Insurance so if he cancels, he's completely SOL.

I'm booked for a tour in Italy - Slovenia - Austria, Germany and Switzerland this summer. The advice I got from my travel agent is to wait. If you cancel you may be SOL. If they cancel is another ball game.  Anyways Italy is quarantined as of this last Sunday until Apr 5. We will see what happens.

Check with the cruise line directly and keep checking with the agent.  More companies are offering refunds/rebooks for those not wanting to travel, and others are offering incentives if you elect to not cancel.  As the situation develops, the policies may change.

[Black Hills]

It finally made it out here to the sticks. 5 "presumptive"  cases in the state with the first fatality in my county. we shall see..

https://www.kotatv.com/content/news/South-Dakota-reports-possible-coronavirus-cases-568676291.html

[Max Wedge]

My take on it:

I have to die. If I catch the Coronavirus now, well then I die now; if later, then now I will take my lunch, since the hour for lunch has arrived – and dying I will tend to later.

[chornbe]

It finally made it out here to the sticks. 5 "presumptive"  cases in the state with the first fatality in my county. we shall see..

https://www.kotatv.com/content/news/South-Dakota-reports-possible-coronavirus-cases-568676291.html

huh. Not bad for something that's a liberal hoax, a lie, nothing to worry about, no big deal... Huh. Whodathought...? Well, stay safe out there amongst them English.

[PatM]

WHO just declared pandemic.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/11/coronavirus-live-updates-washington-ban-michigan-cases-us-death/5011587002/

[squeezer]

WHO just declared pandemic.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/11/coronavirus-live-updates-washington-ban-michigan-cases-us-death/5011587002/

About frickin' time.
By the way, if you're wondering what that actually means, here's a nice excerpt from WHO's guidance document:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/

[Black Hills]

From this WHO article:
 https://rapidcityjournal.com/news/national/covid--outbreak-now-a-pandemic-world-health-organization-declares/article_dba1d12e-2564-5d92-abc4-efd06c45d82b.html#tracking-source=home-just-in


"For most, the coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. But for a few, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illnesses, including pneumonia."


So why in the hell is every store in town out of toilet paper, cleaning supplies, hand sanitizer, and over the counter drugs??

At any rate, I'm meeting the Dakota Dual Sport guys for our weekly "discussion" at a local brewery, virus or not.....

[Virginian]

MOAB is cancelled which I was trying to attend. 7 cases have popped up in the state of VA.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/03/11/coronavirus-fears-may/?fbclid=IwAR39b70c1t0iXzP5FiOEEyCl20J3ceVV3lGuSBnMWI3PU7kY3JgJZwD7rCY

[Cablebandit]

In person classes cancelled at Penn State.  Students told not to come back from Spring Break until at least 4/6.

[Black Hills]

In person classes cancelled at Penn State.  Students told not to come back from Spring Break until at least 4/6.

University of Minnesota as well, and they extended spring break by 2 days?

[Cookie]

I will mock this sickness till I am on my deathbed coughing up blood.

[squeezer]

In person classes cancelled at Penn State.  Students told not to come back from Spring Break until at least 4/6.

I'm at a private university in SoCal. We've canceled in person classes starting tomorrow. Campus isn't closed and students aren't being sent home from the dorms, but we're moving

Other locals that I'm aware of:
Nearly all of the LA County universities (including USC and UCLA) have gone online.

Out here in Orange County:
UC Irvine is on spring break and goes online when they return
Cal State Fullerton is business as usual but faculty are supposed to experiment with online learning starting next week, so they're on the way.

Talking to my colleagues across the country, it looks like most people are making the move this week. People I talked to this morning who said they weren't making the move are telling me this afternoon that they are. My school is in that group.

[bowtie76]

We have moved to online classes only here at the University if Virginia.  Not sure what they are going to do about grad students and our ongoing research.

Going to be a fun ride.

[miles]

I will mock this sickness till I am on my deathbed coughing up blood.

https://youtu.be/345uegSj-zQ