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Author Topic: COVID-19 Video  (Read 34173 times)

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Online zer0netgain

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COVID-19 Video
« on: February 29, 2020, 08:35:46 AM »
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Offline chornbe

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #1 on: February 29, 2020, 09:21:58 AM »
In absolute numbers, it's a fraction of a percent - SO FAR - in total cases compared to the flu. In that regard, it's statistically insignificant across the world. On mainland China, the concentrations are noteworthy.

2% mortality rate if not treated compared to the .1% mortality rate of the flu. In that regard, it's far, far more deadly than the flu that kills thousands and thousands every year. By the percentages.

It is, however, a much more fragile and easily treated bug than flu, in general terms.

Good hygiene is paramount. As is early detection, but its incubation can be up to three weeks without symptoms.

In short, wash your hands, don't stick things in moist places in strangers, and generally get good rest, clean up after yourself, etc.

Don't panic. Be vigilant. Stay away from buffets.

And don't panic.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #2 on: February 29, 2020, 10:23:10 AM »
, don't stick things in moist places in strangers,

  :snork:
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #3 on: February 29, 2020, 10:29:33 AM »
It is, however, a much more fragile and easily treated bug than flu, in general terms.

Is it? So far everything I've read is that they don't know enough about the Covid 19 virus to really make any definite conclusions like this.

And don't panic.

This is the correct answer.  :thumbsup:
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Offline chornbe

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #4 on: February 29, 2020, 11:52:00 AM »
I’ve read some things about it being “highly reactive” to various common disinfectants, sanitizers, cleaners, etc., so it’s easy to sanitize for it. I should have been clearer on that. I don’t know about it’s resistance to antiviral meds, etc.
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Online Mrs. DantesDame

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #5 on: February 29, 2020, 12:00:54 PM »
I’ve read some things about it being “highly reactive” to various common disinfectants, sanitizers, cleaners, etc., so it’s easy to sanitize for it. I should have been clearer on that. I don’t know about it’s resistance to antiviral meds, etc.

 :thumbsup:

It is big in the news here, since we keep getting cases from people who were recently in Italy  ???

And Switzerland did something unusual: the Federal government completely overstepped the rights of the individual cantons and declared that all gatherings of over 1,000 people are banned. This means that Basel Fasnacht, our biggest and most celebrated carnival that was due to start Monday morning, has been cancelled and all related activities are forbidden   :'(

Meanwhile, the Swiss (federal and local) government is heavily promoting hygiene (washing hands, covering your cough, etc), and some big companies (like the one I work at) have put out travel restrictions for work purposes.

Anyway, I am very aware of this because it is in my town. If you want some global numbers, this is a very comprehensive website that might prove interesting
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 12:11:59 PM by Mrs. DantesDame »
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #6 on: February 29, 2020, 12:59:06 PM »
A friend of mine's son arrived home from China  (he lives in one of the affected areas) last week.

Saw him, by chance, tonight. He was boasting about how he had got into the UK without checks because he changed flights at Frankfurt. He has not self-isolated or taken any steps to ensure he is not contagious. He is not symptomatic, which means nothing.

There will be a lot more self-entitled twats around the world, just like him.

We don't know enough about this virus yet. Experts aren't even sure of the incubation period: 2 weeks, perhaps 3. It will kill more people, although the death rate is %-wise low, and it sounds highly contagious. No, it's not the killer influenza can be but it seems to spread fairly easily. As a health worker, I am very worried about my patients, almost all of whom have health problems (as well as mental illness).

On the lighter side, except for Mexican brewers, has anyone seen the share price of Corona beer?
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #7 on: February 29, 2020, 01:53:10 PM »
I’ve read some things about it being “highly reactive” to various common disinfectants, sanitizers, cleaners, etc., so it’s easy to sanitize for it. I should have been clearer on that. I don’t know about it’s resistance to antiviral meds, etc.

 :thumbsup:

It is big in the news here, since we keep getting cases from people who were recently in Italy  ???

And Switzerland did something unusual: the Federal government completely overstepped the rights of the individual cantons and declared that all gatherings of over 1,000 people are banned. This means that Basel Fasnacht, our biggest and most celebrated carnival that was due to start Monday morning, has been cancelled and all related activities are forbidden   :'(

Meanwhile, the Swiss (federal and local) government is heavily promoting hygiene (washing hands, covering your cough, etc), and some big companies (like the one I work at) have put out travel restrictions for work purposes.

Anyway, I am very aware of this because it is in my town. If you want some global numbers, this is a very comprehensive website that might prove interesting

I like that website. Thanks. I'm going to spread it around.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2020, 02:11:44 PM »

2% mortality rate if not treated compared to the .1% mortality rate of the flu. In that regard, it's far, far more deadly than the flu that kills thousands and thousands every year. By the percentages.


Here's my TLDR:

When I get to talk to actual epidemiologists, they're guessing that 2% rate is probably the upper bound. It's based on Wuhan numbers and the large area quarantine probably inflates the numerator. They realized kind of late in the game in Wuhan that a lot of cases are mild and interpreted as colds or are asymptomatic and that deflates the denominator.

The Korean fatality rate is closer to 1%, the numbers are probably pretty good, but they figure they've also missed a lot of mild or asymptomatic cases, so the actual fatality rate will probably turn out to be even lower. But 1% is still 10 times the normal flu and that kills between 12,000 and 65,000 per year (since 2010) in the U.S. alone. So a lot of folks will die but there's still no reason to panic. What happens every year from the flu is pretty freaking tragic but we barely register it.

If they're right that the actual fatality rate upper bound is somewhere between 1 and 2%, then the numbers from Italy are a bummer and the ones from Iran are terrifying. Italy reports a death rate of around 3.6%. Researchers trust the Italians' ability to count and to release accurate numbers. That means the problem is in the denominator -- meaning, in a best case scenario, they've found only 50% of the actual people infected. The rest are out there creating new vectors. Iran is reporting a death rate of 33%. Researchers think their numbers are pretty much garbage, but if they're anywhere close to accurate, they haven't located the large majority of infected. And the outbreak there started in a Shi'a pilgrimage site. Draw your own conclusions.
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Online zer0netgain

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #9 on: February 29, 2020, 06:51:16 PM »
There will be a lot more self-entitled twats around the world, just like him.

Did he lick any elevator buttons while he was over there?
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2020, 09:10:31 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVQC1hAYZBs


Asymptomatic for up o 3 weeks while contagious.

10-15% hospitalized

5% in ICU

All the medical supplies that hospitals will need are not coming from China.

Our medical system cannot handle this. They are understaffed under normal circumstances, and this is going to hit us hard.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2020, 09:28:19 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVQC1hAYZBs


Asymptomatic for up o 3 weeks while contagious.

10-15% hospitalized

5% in ICU

All the medical supplies that hospitals will need are not coming from China.

Our medical system cannot handle this. They are understaffed under normal circumstances, and this is going to hit us hard.

So he's using the same site as MrsDantesDame posted above. There is also data on that same site showing that about half the cases have resolved and left a living human being free to go home. In addition there is analysis of those who have died. It's mostly old people with pre-existing conditions. 82% of the cases have only mild symptoms. You have to wonder about people who post alarmist videos like this one.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2020, 08:45:06 AM »
I don't know if COVID-19 will be as bad as many of the alarmist videos project.

What we should be worried about is the "next" pandemic, one that kills 10 or 20% of the population.

Could that happen?  Maybe; maybe not. 

If that happens, our social agencies are unprepared to adequately address it.

And people don't understand their personal liberties may be constrained in the public's interest.

Well-rounded piece in The Guardian, if you don't hit the paywall. 
Yes, it is worse than the flu: busting the coronavirus myths
« Last Edit: March 01, 2020, 09:17:23 AM by Skee »
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2020, 10:52:34 AM »
SARS is a Carona Virus too. take care of yourself and take precautions and you'll likely be fine.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2020, 11:17:48 AM »
Ug.  My wife and I have planned a 2-week vacation to Italy at the beginning of May.  We have reservations from Sorrento to Siena.  We were planning to fly back from Florence, but could probably change that to Rome or Naples.  Not sure if we should go or cancel.  It would be a bummer to worry about it all the time we are there... My deepest sympathy for those affected.
.

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2020, 11:29:48 AM »
I'd wait and see. The Italian authorities seem to be on top of it as they can be.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2020, 11:37:31 AM »
SARS is a Carona Virus too. take care of yourself and take precautions and you'll likely be fine.

As Dan (the Scientist) explained it to me, is that the name "Corona" means "crown" and is the umbrella name for the virus. Then you have the "sub-viruses" (my name for it), like SARS, MERS, Covid 19 that all are grouped underneath "Corona".

Wiki has some good explanations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2

HTH  :bigok:
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2020, 11:42:55 AM »
SARS is a Carona Virus too. take care of yourself and take precautions and you'll likely be fine.

The second part is pretty much true. The first part is a little misleading. SARS had about a 9.6% fatality rate and MERS was over 34%. People who caught those were sick immediately and easily identified. Most cases of secondary transmission for both occurred in hospital settings. This is different.
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Online Mrs. DantesDame

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2020, 11:58:29 AM »
Here is a 3rd party video that does a good job of illustrating the various viruses, the rate of contagion and the rate of death.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PYKYjkqnGU
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2020, 12:28:20 PM »
Ug.  My wife and I have planned a 2-week vacation to Italy at the beginning of May.  We have reservations from Sorrento to Siena.  We were planning to fly back from Florence, but could probably change that to Rome or Naples.  Not sure if we should go or cancel.  It would be a bummer to worry about it all the time we are there... My deepest sympathy for those affected.
.

I'm with you there; this sounds like the trip you were talking about in Ohio.  We have reservations for travel over the next 9 months, and not sure if we will (or should) cancel or whether that decision will be made for us.  On the bright side, I believe our current exposure is about $500.

I left room in my plans for an early May ride to WV that may not happen either.   Wait & see at this point.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #20 on: March 01, 2020, 12:32:08 PM »
Here is a 3rd party video that does a good job of illustrating the various viruses, the rate of contagion and the rate of death.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PYKYjkqnGU

I saw his first one; thanks for posting the updated one.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #21 on: March 01, 2020, 12:40:34 PM »
Ug.  My wife and I have planned a 2-week vacation to Italy at the beginning of May.  We have reservations from Sorrento to Siena.  We were planning to fly back from Florence, but could probably change that to Rome or Naples.  Not sure if we should go or cancel.  It would be a bummer to worry about it all the time we are there... My deepest sympathy for those affected.
.

I'm with you there; this sounds like the trip you were talking about in Ohio.  We have reservations for travel over the next 9 months, and not sure if we will (or should) cancel or whether that decision will be made for us.  On the bright side, I believe our current exposure is about $500.

I left room in my plans for an early May ride to WV that may not happen either.   Wait & see at this point.
I am in wait and see mode for any travel, I was going to visit Vietnam this year, that's a dead horse now, and I will see how thing play out even for US travel.I am not afraid but if it gets to where travel or other things are curtailed ( personal freedoms) I don't want to be stuck with reservations I cannot do anything with.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #22 on: March 01, 2020, 04:29:27 PM »
Here is a 3rd party video that does a good job of illustrating the various viruses, the rate of contagion and the rate of death.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PYKYjkqnGU

That's a good one. I really the maps starting around 3:00.

There's a typo on his Takeaway #4. It says Australia is the only unaffected continent. Actually, it's Antarctica. His map shows the Australian cases.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #23 on: March 01, 2020, 08:10:08 PM »
Ug.  My wife and I have planned a 2-week vacation to Italy at the beginning of May.  We have reservations from Sorrento to Siena.  We were planning to fly back from Florence, but could probably change that to Rome or Naples.  Not sure if we should go or cancel.  It would be a bummer to worry about it all the time we are there... My deepest sympathy for those affected.
.


My expectation is that covid-19 will have run its course by April in most of Europe.
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Online zer0netgain

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #24 on: March 02, 2020, 03:54:54 AM »
I don't know if COVID-19 will be as bad as many of the alarmist videos project.

What we should be worried about is the "next" pandemic, one that kills 10 or 20% of the population.

Could that happen?  Maybe; maybe not. 

If that happens, our social agencies are unprepared to adequately address it.

And people don't understand their personal liberties may be constrained in the public's interest.

Well-rounded piece in The Guardian, if you don't hit the paywall. 
Yes, it is worse than the flu: busting the coronavirus myths

The bit that gets me is that naturally occurring diseases with that level of mortality have largely depended on outside factors like poor nutrition, lack of medical care, poor sanitation, etc. to spread and kill.  I don’t think there is a natural occurring virus that does that on its own.

Every modern nation with a Level 4 biohazard facility has the capacity to research and weaponize diseases.  Forget treaties...they aren’t being followed.

Avian Flu...Bayer Pharmaceuticals shipped a batch of vaccine that contained live virus...they claimed it was a labeling error, but (1) why would you make a whole batch of live virus, and (2) how did that cock-up get past multiple layers of quality control without discovery?  Had it not been caught by a random check at its destination, thousands would have been deliberately infected.

Taint aspirin and there’s a nationwide recall and federal investigation, but shipping pandemic-triggering virus gets not scrutiny?

Swine Flu...once it was discovered there was a research facility at the epicenter of the outbreak researching swine flu, the hysteria and new cases died off overnight.

Now we have COVID-19.  Outbreak centers around a Level 4 biohazard facility in China...a nation renowned for not adhering to treaty law with aspirations of global dominance.  China knew of the outbreak for about a month before the world heard of it and they tried to cover it up for several weeks.  We may never get to the truth of how this outbreak started, but I’m confident it wasn’t naturally occurring.  Bioweapons are usually existing diseases enhanced to a level that will do the desired job as compared to crafting a disease from scratch.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #25 on: March 02, 2020, 08:16:45 AM »
Curious question meant to inspirer thought, not challenge: Millions upon millions of people living in tight proximity with weird climate conditions and purely numbers based weaknesses in quality food and sanitation aren’t enough to explain why all the wacky shit you read about happens n China and India? We dropped two nukes in Japan and they had a reactor blow up and still the level of freaky shit isn’t a blip on the radar compared to the two most overpopulated countries in the globe. Two headed babies. China and India. Weird super rare diseases. China and India. Recessive genes causing mutations. China and India. Wild life mutating at crazy rates. China and India.

Thoughts?
« Last Edit: March 02, 2020, 08:44:45 AM by chornbe »
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #26 on: March 02, 2020, 08:20:23 AM »
Quote
Wild life mutating and but so rates.


I think you're drunk.

Or you need to write some code for a better speech to text program.   ;D

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2020, 08:45:43 AM »
Quote
Wild life mutating and but so rates.


I think you're drunk.

Or you need to write some code for a better speech to text program.   ;D

I can't type on my phone given the combination of my sausage fingers and lack of reading glasses, while standing in kitchen waiting for my first cup of caffeine to steep. ;)

I am at my desk with a proper keyboard, and properly bespectacled now.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #28 on: March 02, 2020, 10:34:32 AM »
Well. There was a simian hemorrhagic fever (Ebola virus) outbreak at a primate center in Virginia in 1989 because of imported cynomolgus monkeys (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00001512.htm). This became the genesis of a book called 'The Hot Zone' by Richard Preston (and eventually became a movie). There was also a similar outbreak in Europe with Marburg virus - the CDC link explains those as well. So my point is... stupid stuff happens.

There is no reason to trust the Chinese and US companies have sold them DNA sequencing machines. I used to work for two of them (Life Technologies and Thermo Fisher Scientific). Research purposes only, my butt. 'What did you think was going to happen?'  :rolleyes: But you know... greed.

In any case, a few other points to consider: The Asians have never learned to keep different species of animals separated. Europeans learned this a long time ago - e.g. keep poultry and pigs separated. This is why you get viruses jumping from one species to another. Viruses cannot replicate on their own; they absolutely require a host and as such are very good at finding hosts and infecting them. However, it is not in a viruses' best interest to kill their host, yes? Hyper-virulence means that the virus burns out eventually because the replicating mechanism introduces mutations that are not repaired in a timely fashion. These viruses eventually commit suicide so to speak. This is what happens to Ebola. Except it's getting better at proliferating these days. Not sure if there are Chinese biological research centers in Africa. Probably not, but soon, given the Chinese investment in infrastructure in Africa. So far though, they've not been very good at that either. So far.

So it is plausible that the virus did start in bats (or whatever) and jumped species in a market.... and it is also plausible that the Chinese effed up big time (assuming the research center in Wuhan was producing biologicals). Unless we can sequence viruses in that lab (or from animals in the market) and compare to DNA isolated from people infected early on, we can't prove either hypothesis.

So speculate away. Just keep washing your hands and staying away from sick people.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2020, 10:52:39 AM »
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #30 on: March 02, 2020, 12:00:40 PM »
Info from my brother who is usually pretty smart and an ER doc:

SARS-COVID-19 Update

As the Covid-19 outbreak increases, we're seeing more countries drop on the travel advisory list. An outbreak ocurred in Washington state this weekend and the first novel virus-associated death in the US was recorded.

The CDC reports 87,000 cases worldwide, 80,000 of which are in China. Briefly, this virus shares similarities to the SARS-COV and MERS-COV viruses, All of which are coronaviruses. This is a very large and common virus family, species are seeing both humans and other animals. Rarely is there a spread from an animal to humans but this has occurred in the previous two coronavirus infections above. Interestingly, all three viruses have origins in bats.

This new virus was initially identified in the Hubei province of China in WuHan city. Originally connected to a seafood and live animal market in the city of WuHan, the virus is thought to have changed from animal to human transmission to person to person transmission.
On January 30 of 2020 the WHO declared a “public health emergency of international concern.” And on January 31 the US health and human services declared a public health emergency.

The complete clinical picture of covert 19, it’s timeline and severely are not fully known, however reported cases have been from mild to severe, with most deaths occurring in those individuals with extremes of age, extremely young or elderly, or those individuals with multiple comorbidities, chronic illnesses or decreased immune function. In the United States, the current risk of exposure to US citizens is still considered low.

Symptoms usually occur 2 to 14 days after exposure, and major symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath. in other words, like almost every other viral infection.
To put things into perspective, there were 8098 cases of SARS and 774 deaths. That was a 9.6% chance of death. Influenza occurs throughout the world in yearly outbreaks and affects between three and 5 million individuals with a severe illness each year, resulting in about 300,000 to 650,000 deaths per year.

Although this new virus is considered more contagious and more deadly than the influenza virus, I want to emphasize that that does appear to be only in patients who are severely ill, With underlying comorbidities, chronic illnesses, and extremes of age.

The virus is thought to spread in similar patterns to other coronaviruses and the recommended method for decreasing risk of transmission is frequent handwashing, wearing a surgical mask is also useful. Staying approximately 6 feet away from infected individuals, covering your mouth and nose from nasal and respiratory secretions, and washing surfaces will also decrease risk of spread.

At this time there’s no vaccine or cure. However staying in good health, sleeping appropriately, exercising well, staying hydrated will help not only with this particular coronavirus but any viral infection. At this point we still don’t know everything about the disease, but I would go about my daily life and not be deeply concerned. Treat this like any other virus or viral infection. This is just the media’s new zombie apocalypse story which causes a frenzy across all walks of life.
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Offline OHScot

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #31 on: March 02, 2020, 12:01:22 PM »
The book The Hot Zone was an eye opener.  Wonder if we are any more prepared now?


Best place to shop for a flamethrower is?




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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #32 on: March 02, 2020, 12:26:16 PM »
The book The Hot Zone was an eye opener.  Wonder if we are any more prepared now?


Best place to shop for a flamethrower is?

Nope.

https://www.boringcompany.com/not-a-flamethrower
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #33 on: March 02, 2020, 01:03:26 PM »
Daily updates and real info rather than just parroting what the WHO has said:

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching
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Offline chornbe

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #34 on: March 02, 2020, 01:13:36 PM »
Just for giggles, read Scott Sigler's novel Ancestor. While the meat of the novel isn't virus based per se, the opening salvo is spent dealing with a research facility where a deadly virus jumps species. The non-fiction parts of his stories are well fleshed out and include contributory editing by people in the fields of question. The rest of the novel is a hell of a ride in other ways; I love it and hope it makes its movie debut some time soon.

Also consider reading Infected and Contagious; while not earthbound virus centered, it does deal a lot with the CDC and broad coverage of pendemic-level infection events. It's also a damned fine sci-fi series. The third book is great reading, too, but not necessary to get the impact, and is fairly typical of follow-up story in established-events timelines.
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Offline Baxter

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #35 on: March 02, 2020, 03:41:11 PM »
I'm not in a position to make predictions. But I suspect that this will go beyond a non-event yet will not be a historic catastrophe (save for those who actually suffer or die).  Neither Pollyanna nor Chicken Little are appropriate.  But anyone who knowingly breaks quarantine should be shunned by all.

We're planning to put off some contemplated purchases so that funds are available for co-pays in the event we catch this and we require hospitalization.  Just a precaution.  If this should pass, we'll then proceed as normal.
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Offline chornbe

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #36 on: March 02, 2020, 03:43:03 PM »
I'm not in a position to make predictions. But I suspect that this will go beyond a non-event yet will not be a historic catastrophe (save for those who actually suffer or die).  Neither Pollyanna nor Chicken Little are appropriate.  But anyone who knowingly breaks quarantine should be shunned by all.

We're planning to put off some contemplated purchases so that funds are available for co-pays in the event we catch this and we require hospitalization.  Just a precaution.  If this should pass, we'll then proceed as normal.

This guy gets it.
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Offline CLAY

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #37 on: March 02, 2020, 08:52:09 PM »
My prediction:  COVID-19 won't be a big deal.

But if the US got hit by a big, bad one (like the Spanish Flu) the government isn't even close to ready.  The US government has a long history of preparing for the *last* thing, and not listening or spending on what gthe *next* thing could be.  It's how we operate.

There's historical story after story to support this fact.
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Offline PatM

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #38 on: March 02, 2020, 08:53:44 PM »
Fear of the virus is worse than the virus itself.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #39 on: March 02, 2020, 09:31:56 PM »
Fear of the virus is worse than the virus itself.

For most of us.  We all hope we are in the group of most people, and fear we are in the other.
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Online zer0netgain

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #40 on: March 03, 2020, 05:33:59 AM »
My prediction:  COVID-19 won't be a big deal.

But if the US got hit by a big, bad one (like the Spanish Flu) the government isn't even close to ready.

Question...was Spanish Flu really that bad (disease wise) or was it it more about the age and circumstances surrounding it (quality of medical care, sanitation, vaccinations [if any], nutrition in common man’s diet, etc.)?  I think all prior pandemics of notoriety for high body counts could be equally (or more so) attributed to sociological and technological factors as the disease itself.
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Online miles

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #41 on: March 03, 2020, 07:46:34 AM »
My prediction:  COVID-19 won't be a big deal.

But if the US got hit by a big, bad one (like the Spanish Flu) the government isn't even close to ready.

Question...was Spanish Flu really that bad (disease wise) or was it it more about the age and circumstances surrounding it (quality of medical care, sanitation, vaccinations [if any], nutrition in common man’s diet, etc.)?  I think all prior pandemics of notoriety for high body counts could be equally (or more so) attributed to sociological and technological factors as the disease itself.


I'm willing to bet that Italy's aging population is a factor in how hard it is hitting there.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #42 on: March 03, 2020, 07:49:42 AM »
My prediction:  COVID-19 won't be a big deal.

But if the US got hit by a big, bad one (like the Spanish Flu) the government isn't even close to ready.

Question...was Spanish Flu really that bad (disease wise) or was it it more about the age and circumstances surrounding it (quality of medical care, sanitation, vaccinations [if any], nutrition in common man’s diet, etc.)?  I think all prior pandemics of notoriety for high body counts could be equally (or more so) attributed to sociological and technological factors as the disease itself.

Well first... it took down the healthy in the prime of life in addition to the weak, young, and elderly. You would think those healthy people would have seen the flu before and would have some immunity. Secondly, this flu led to hemolytic activity in the lungs. Most people.... drowned in their own fluids.

I believe there has been research on this virus; let me poke around. BRB.
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Online miles

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #43 on: March 03, 2020, 08:09:27 AM »
My prediction:  COVID-19 won't be a big deal.

But if the US got hit by a big, bad one (like the Spanish Flu) the government isn't even close to ready.

Question...was Spanish Flu really that bad (disease wise) or was it it more about the age and circumstances surrounding it (quality of medical care, sanitation, vaccinations [if any], nutrition in common man’s diet, etc.)?  I think all prior pandemics of notoriety for high body counts could be equally (or more so) attributed to sociological and technological factors as the disease itself.

Well first... it took down the healthy in the prime of life in addition to the weak, young, and elderly. You would think those healthy people would have seen the flu before and would have some immunity. Secondly, this flu led to hemolytic activity in the lungs. Most people.... drowned in their own fluids.

I believe there has been research on this virus; let me poke around. BRB.


I just read something from an epidemiologist who has been working with the Chinese, and he speculated that China's extremely high rate of smoking may have a lot to do with why it has hit males harder than females, and almost completely spared kids.  He was lamenting that  whether the patients smoked or not wasn't one of the questions the authorities are asking incoming patients.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #44 on: March 03, 2020, 08:34:31 AM »
Curious question meant to inspirer thought, not challenge: Millions upon millions of people living in tight proximity with weird climate conditions and purely numbers based weaknesses in quality food and sanitation aren’t enough to explain why all the wacky shit you read about happens n China and India? We dropped two nukes in Japan and they had a reactor blow up and still the level of freaky shit isn’t a blip on the radar compared to the two most overpopulated countries in the globe. Two headed babies. China and India. Weird super rare diseases. China and India. Recessive genes causing mutations. China and India. Wild life mutating at crazy rates. China and India.

Thoughts?

maybe it's just odds? the more people the more likely for something weird to happen?
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #45 on: March 03, 2020, 08:47:01 AM »
My prediction:  COVID-19 won't be a big deal.

But if the US got hit by a big, bad one (like the Spanish Flu) the government isn't even close to ready.

Question...was Spanish Flu really that bad (disease wise) or was it it more about the age and circumstances surrounding it (quality of medical care, sanitation, vaccinations [if any], nutrition in common man’s diet, etc.)?  I think all prior pandemics of notoriety for high body counts could be equally (or more so) attributed to sociological and technological factors as the disease itself.

Well first... it took down the healthy in the prime of life in addition to the weak, young, and elderly. You would think those healthy people would have seen the flu before and would have some immunity. Secondly, this flu led to hemolytic activity in the lungs. Most people.... drowned in their own fluids.

I believe there has been research on this virus; let me poke around. BRB.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html

So the 1918 virus has actually been reconstructed and tested in mice. The virus RNA was isolated from Inuits, buried in permafrost. The cause of its virulence was the ability to replicate rapidly in lung tissue. The researchers did a variety of recombinant swaps with other strains of influenza to see what parts cause this ability to replicate so fast. Basically the virus replicates so fast as to burst the lung cells. Four days was about the average until death.

Yes... modern antivirals are useful against this virus.... but I wouldn't want to have to depend on them.

There is a ton more detail on the CDC site for your edumacation; I myself am going back to see if it's understood how the virus replicates so fast.
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Online viffergyrl

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #46 on: March 03, 2020, 08:53:47 AM »
In summary,  the 1918 influenza was particularly virulent and that coupled with the lack of antibiotics (for secondary bacterial infections) and anti-virals, plus the uneven application of quarantine and isolation, made it incredibly lethal.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #47 on: March 03, 2020, 09:45:22 AM »
In summary,  the 1918 influenza was particularly virulent and that coupled with the lack of antibiotics (for secondary bacterial infections) and anti-virals, plus the uneven application of quarantine and isolation, made it incredibly lethal.

It's also hypothesized that the reason it killed healthy people in the prime of life is that their immune systems overreacted to the virus, causing the problems with fluid in the lungs.
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Online Skee

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #48 on: March 03, 2020, 05:30:01 PM »
In summary,  the 1918 influenza was particularly virulent and that coupled with the lack of antibiotics (for secondary bacterial infections) and anti-virals, plus the uneven application of quarantine and isolation, made it incredibly lethal.

It's also hypothesized that the reason it killed healthy people in the prime of life is that their immune systems overreacted to the virus, causing the problems with fluid in the lungs.

I read that too in a case study buried in the magazine rack.  It’ prolly on line somewhere 
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Offline leeo45

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #49 on: March 03, 2020, 05:54:47 PM »
In summary,  the 1918 influenza was particularly virulent and that coupled with the lack of antibiotics (for secondary bacterial infections) and anti-virals, plus the uneven application of quarantine and isolation, made it incredibly lethal.

It's also hypothesized that the reason it killed healthy people in the prime of life is that their immune systems overreacted to the virus, causing the problems with fluid in the lungs.

ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) is how COVID19 is killing people as well.   

Related to the H1N1 pandemic in 1918, there was very little understanding of viruses in general at that time.   Many of the "precautions" that were taken and advised by even the more advanced medical communities were based on knowledge about bacterial infections and these were mostly ineffective in slowing the spread of a virus.   

Plus, there was a sizable war going on at that time that created some difficult social and logistical priorities for a lot of countries.