Brexit

[Papa Lazarou]

Well, it looks like the UK is out of the EU. How immensely stupid. The pound has already lost 3% and there's worse to come.

I agree with this quote:

Labour former Europe Minister Keith Vaz told the BBC the British people had voted with their "emotions" and rejected the advice of experts who had warned about economic impacting of leaving the EU.
He added: "It will be catastrophic for our country, for the rest of Europe and for the rest of the world."

[miles]

But at least you guys will be able to kick the darkies out.  I mean, that is what it was all about, right?

[Papa Lazarou]

But at least you guys will be able to kick the darkies out.  I mean, that is what it was all about, right?

Sigh. Yes, it's what it seems to be about. Fecking English twats.

[Papa Lazarou]

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[Mrs. DantesDame]

Well, it looks like the UK is out of the EU. How immensely stupid. The pound has already lost 3% and there's worse to come.

Down 10% as of this writing 


This result completely surprised me. I thought that the UK would stay and they would just have to deal with making the losing side happy, but.... wtf are they thinking???




Now I am curious to see what Scotland does. 

[miles]

Now I am curious to see what Scotland does. 

Get the fook oot, I ken.

[Papa Lazarou]

Now I am curious to see what Scotland does. 

Get the fook oot, I ken.

And justifiably so.

Whoever in their right minds thought to give such a complex decision to the sodding people? Isn't that what we pay politicians for? To make complex decisions on our behalf? Oh no, Cameron thought up this idea to help him win the last general election and to appease the Tory right wing.

[Mrs. DantesDame]

And now there are voters who "regret" their Leave vote, thinking that it wouldn't count.


WTF??? 

[Papa Lazarou]

It is heart breaking and so incredibly stupid.

I want to apply to France as a refugee.

[sleazy rider]

We can possibly end up with the same situation here, unfortunately.  Sorry it happened and sorry in advance for the catastrophes to come.

[expatbrit]

Well, it looks like the UK is out of the EU. How immensely stupid. The pound has already lost 3% and there's worse to come.

Down 10% as of this writing 


This result completely surprised me. I thought that the UK would stay and they would just have to deal with making the losing side happy, but.... wtf are they thinking???




Now I am curious to see what Scotland does. 

Yeah. I was hoping for a close vote; get some reform in the EU out of fear, but stay in and influence it. Definitely feels like an emotional / last-minute patriotism vote, and points out some huge divides back home.

[Scratch]

I want to apply to France as a refugee.

Have you considered 'murica?

[Mrs. DantesDame]

I want to apply to France as a refugee.

Have you considered 'murica?

Have you considered Scotland?   

[miles]

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[Papa Lazarou]

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[Papa Lazarou]

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[Mr. Whippy]

So y'all don't think the financial markets have been hedging their positions in both directions for the last several months, adjusting with the latest polls?

And what happens if UK continues on economically essentially the same as before the vote?  It seems Switzerland hasn't collapsed in a financial pyre yet.  Nor has Norway.  Maybe the UK will simply carry on, only with more local control.

Just a thought.

[miles]

An arrangement similar to Norway's would be the last thing anybody in Britain would want.

[Mr. Whippy]

An arrangement similar to Norway's would be the last thing anybody in Britain would want.

Explain why.  (Honestly, I don't know)  I have a few Norwegian friends and aside from not liking their gun regulations, they really like Norway.

[miles]

There's nothing wrong with Norway.  The thing is, its relationship with the EU is exactly what 52% of Britons just voted against.

Norway has to accept all of the EU rules but gets no say in the EU rule-making, and to get the free trade agreement with the EU they also have to accept the free movement of people, which is just what the Brexit vote was all about preventing.

[Mr. Whippy]

There's nothing wrong with Norway.  The thing is, its relationship with the EU is exactly what 52% of Britons just voted against.

Norway has to accept all of the EU rules but gets no say in the EU rule-making, and to get the free trade agreement with the EU they also have to accept the free movement of people, which is just what the Brexit vote was all about preventing.

No, only about 20% of the laws apply to them, and most are related to commerce.  Norway already had acceptable immigration laws in place (at least that's what I'm told).

[miles]

Here is some reading on the subject:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/16/eu-referendum-comparing-norway-and-switzerland-with-the-uk/
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/what-would-a-norway-style-relationship-with-the-eu-entail/
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/27/norway-eu-reality-uk-voters-seduced-by-norwegian-model

[Mr. Whippy]

From one of your links:

Norway can theoretically refuse to implement EU legislation, but it has never used this power. Whilst it is a legitimate tool, it has major drawbacks limiting its practical effectiveness. Norway’s ‘right of veto’ does not stop the EU enacting legislation and, if it relates to product standards or financial regulations, for example, Norway cannot use the old ones to continue to export to the EU and can therefore find itself locked out of the Single Market in the areas affected.

So Norway can veto non-commercial regulations with out consequence (as I was told)

[R Doug]

It's a sad day and there's a chance the US ins't far behind if the Donald gets in.  Scotland won't be able to pull it off.  The EU and NATO have strongly opposed which means they won't let Scotland in.  Little Scotland, as a country, couldn't survive on its own.

My money is Germany may be next.  Have the EU has been sucking on its teat for too long. 

[Jim]

We can possibly end up with the same situation here

Radio today was saying "Texit 2018" 

Texas Exit...

Hmmm...

[Mrs. DantesDame]

So y'all don't think the financial markets have been hedging their positions in both directions for the last several months, adjusting with the latest polls?

But "the latest polls" (including up to the end of the voting period) still put the final vote on Remain. It would have been impossible to adjust for that. Plus, the financial markets have more than just where their money is virtually, but also physically. There were talks about major banking industries moving from London to (possibly) Frankfurt. THAT is something that one does not do lightly.

And what happens if UK continues on economically essentially the same as before the vote?  It seems Switzerland hasn't collapsed in a financial pyre yet.  Nor has Norway.  Maybe the UK will simply carry on, only with more local control.

Ah, but consider that Switzerland and Norway have never been part of the EU, have already negotiated trade agreements and controls and migration numbers. The UK did this, but as part of the EU: Now that they are to leave, every single trade agreement, regulation, etc, has to be looked at and re-written. And the EU may not go easy on the UK, as there are other EU Member states who toy with the idea of leaving. If the EU makes it easy for the UK, then others may try to follow suit. But if the EU takes a hard-line approach to warn others away, then the UK will have an even harder time of it.

That being said, the EU stated that they want to sever the connection "as soon as possible", so there may be some lenient negotiations just to clear the way.


I found this analogy on the Brexit itself. It doesn't cover too much about the post-Brexit implications, but for those who don't fully understand the UK/EU split, it might help:
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12023670/brexit-results-referendum-america

This webpage goes into much more detail on the economic quagmire that the UK is in:
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/23/12021222/brexit-what-happens-next


Anyway, it is a big deal. I've read some comments on the internet where someone says "Oh, give it a couple of days and let the markets settle". Sure, there will be some settling of markets. But in the background, there is a mountain of movement and shuffling of people, companies and money that is difficult to fathom.

[Formerly Known as Bigfoot]

But at least you guys will be able to kick the darkies out.  I mean, that is what it was all about, right?

Yay.  Politics.  Since you started it.  Maybe they just want to be able to control who comes into their country.  No one can claim that with this mass immigration from certain countries they aren't seeing major issues.  But go ahead and make it what you want.

[Papa Lazarou]

But at least you guys will be able to kick the darkies out.  I mean, that is what it was all about, right?

Yay.  Politics.  Since you started it.  Maybe they just want to be able to control who comes into their country.  No one can claim that with this mass immigration from certain countries they aren't seeing major issues.  But go ahead and make it what you want.

Sadly, the scare stories on immigration by the Leave campaign may have swung it. See the entirely genuine interview in the pics above.

There are 3 types of immigrants in the UK. Entirely legal ones, mainly from Eastern Europe. who have benefited the economy.

Refugees. Our record on accepting them has been shameful. Refugee is self explanatory. Most are fleeing one of the Muslim wars.

Illegal immigrants. Mainly economic migrants from Africa. The UK already had the option to stop them and our ability to stop them will be hampered by the Brexit. I can't see France hanging onto the Calais migrants-they will all be in England soon. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36626553

[Mr. Whippy]

So y'all don't think the financial markets have been hedging their positions in both directions for the last several months, adjusting with the latest polls?

But "the latest polls" (including up to the end of the voting period) still put the final vote on Remain. It would have been impossible to adjust for that. Plus, the financial markets have more than just where their money is virtually, but also physically. There were talks about major banking industries moving from London to (possibly) Frankfurt. THAT is something that one does not do lightly.

And what happens if UK continues on economically essentially the same as before the vote?  It seems Switzerland hasn't collapsed in a financial pyre yet.  Nor has Norway.  Maybe the UK will simply carry on, only with more local control.

Ah, but consider that Switzerland and Norway have never been part of the EU, have already negotiated trade agreements and controls and migration numbers. The UK did this, but as part of the EU: Now that they are to leave, every single trade agreement, regulation, etc, has to be looked at and re-written. And the EU may not go easy on the UK, as there are other EU Member states who toy with the idea of leaving. If the EU makes it easy for the UK, then others may try to follow suit. But if the EU takes a hard-line approach to warn others away, then the UK will have an even harder time of it.

That being said, the EU stated that they want to sever the connection "as soon as possible", so there may be some lenient negotiations just to clear the way.


I found this analogy on the Brexit itself. It doesn't cover too much about the post-Brexit implications, but for those who don't fully understand the UK/EU split, it might help:
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12023670/brexit-results-referendum-america

This webpage goes into much more detail on the economic quagmire that the UK is in:
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/23/12021222/brexit-what-happens-next


Anyway, it is a big deal. I've read some comments on the internet where someone says "Oh, give it a couple of days and let the markets settle". Sure, there will be some settling of markets. But in the background, there is a mountain of movement and shuffling of people, companies and money that is difficult to fathom.

A lot of this is fear mongering.  Greece is going to default and much of the EU is ready to jettison them, yet no one is claiming disaster will ensue.  Yes, banks will lose a lot of money but somehow it would be doable, but undesirable.  One of the economic engines of the EU opts out and the world is going to crash into a recession over essentially political and bureaucratic red tape?  Seems a little hyperbolic.  The basics of the European economy (and world economies) is basically unchanged.  Some may shift headquarters, others not, but that can occur secondary to any number of factors .

For the UK, the biggest threat is they lose the buffer of the larger EU in times of economic downturn. 

I can tell you most of these large multinationals and DEFINITELY the multinational banks have physicists and mathematicians on well paid salaries who have gone through all sorts of iterations via game theory on what will happen with UK in or out of the EU.  These guys don't sit back and wait to react, they have plans of all sorts backed by contingency plans.  Relax, the global economy will survive.

[miles]

Many of these large corporations (banks especially) have been working on contingency plans, and a lot of those plans involve substantially leaving the UK.
The City's position as financial center of the EU is not merely in jeopardy- it is going to end as such.

[miles]

But at least you guys will be able to kick the darkies out.  I mean, that is what it was all about, right?

Yay.  Politics.  Since you started it.  Maybe they just want to be able to control who comes into their country.  No one can claim that with this mass immigration from certain countries they aren't seeing major issues.  But go ahead and make it what you want.

Don't kid yourself. Politics started with the creation of this thread.

Everybody in the UK admits that immigration has been an economic benefit- it's just that 52% of the voters (mainly the older ones- the younger the voter, the more likely to vote "remain") just don't care that immigrants are beneficial to the economy, they just don't want them.

Sure, there was a heaping side order of resentment that the UK had to follow rules created by EU beareaucrats in Brussels, but it was mainly about immigration.

[Mr. Whippy]

But at least you guys will be able to kick the darkies out.  I mean, that is what it was all about, right?

Yay.  Politics.  Since you started it.  Maybe they just want to be able to control who comes into their country.  No one can claim that with this mass immigration from certain countries they aren't seeing major issues.  But go ahead and make it what you want.

Don't kid yourself. Politics started with the creation of this thread.

Everybody in the UK admits that immigration has been an economic benefit- it's just that 52% of the voters (mainly the older ones- the younger the voter, the more likely to vote "remain") just don't care that immigrants are beneficial to the economy, they just don't want them.

Sure, there was a heaping side order of resentment that the UK had to follow rules created by EU beareaucrats in Brussels, but it was mainly about immigration.

That is certainly one side's take on this.  My friends in the UK who are my age simply do not like the regulatory burdens and changes that adversely affect them.  They feel they have virtually no voice in the process and want more local control.  You will, of course, smirk and assume it's about immigrants, but there's not much I can do about it.  For the Remain side, it gives them the sense of moral superiority in their loss to try and frame it as such.

[Papa Lazarou]

There is a lot wrong with the EU which needs reform, not least the regulatory burdens your friends mention. The system is that employed Commissioners make these regulations and laws and the EU parliament approves them or amends them or rejects them. The EU parliament is accountable to the electorate-the Commissioners are not. That could usefully change. The UK took a number of opt outs from EU law and regulation.

Saying that they have no control is a bit disingenuous on their part, though. Voting in the EU elections and lobbying your MEP might have had more success than complaining about it and trashing the economy.

[rgbeard]

#REGREXIT

Haha!!!!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/petition-eu-referendum-million-signatures_us_576e58ebe4b0dbb1bbbab919?section=

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/regrexit-eu-referendum_us_576e8217e4b0dbb1bbbabc7a?section=

[Mr. Whippy]

I couldn't say, but the impression I get from them is, the MEP's are generally bought off by wealthy/powerful interests--much like US senators and representatives.  They felt essentially voiceless.

[Papa Lazarou]

I couldn't say, but the impression I get from them is, the MEP's are generally bought off by wealthy/powerful interests--much like US senators and representatives.  They felt essentially voiceless.

Most people in the UK don't know who their MEP is. And turnouts for EU elections was always very poor. If you don't vote, if you don't care, more fool you.

We're stuffed.

[Mrs. DantesDame]

Papa, do you know if this Referendum is legally binding?

Just checked, and this site says that it is not.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-legally-binding-brexit-lisbon-cameron-sovereign-parliament

[Formerly Known as Bigfoot]

It is heart breaking and so incredibly stupid.

I want to apply to France as a refugee.

Feel free.

http://lawofficer.com/2015/12/france-closes-down-mosques-334-war-grade-weapons-found/

[Scratch]

It is heart breaking and so incredibly stupid.

I want to apply to France as a refugee.

Feel free.

http://lawofficer.com/2015/12/france-closes-down-mosques-334-war-grade-weapons-found/

What are "war-grade weapons"?

[Cookie]

AR15s. Don't you watch the news?

[miles]

But at least you guys will be able to kick the darkies out.  I mean, that is what it was all about, right?

Yay.  Politics.  Since you started it.  Maybe they just want to be able to control who comes into their country.  No one can claim that with this mass immigration from certain countries they aren't seeing major issues.  But go ahead and make it what you want.

Don't kid yourself. Politics started with the creation of this thread.

Everybody in the UK admits that immigration has been an economic benefit- it's just that 52% of the voters (mainly the older ones- the younger the voter, the more likely to vote "remain") just don't care that immigrants are beneficial to the economy, they just don't want them.

Sure, there was a heaping side order of resentment that the UK had to follow rules created by EU beareaucrats in Brussels, but it was mainly about immigration.

That is certainly one side's take on this.  My friends in the UK who are my age simply do not like the regulatory burdens and changes that adversely affect them.  They feel they have virtually no voice in the process and want more local control.  You will, of course, smirk and assume it's about immigrants, but there's not much I can do about it.  For the Remain side, it gives them the sense of moral superiority in their loss to try and frame it as such.

The "regulatory burdens" angle was in fact the intellectual opposition to EU membership- but the intellectuals overwhelmingly voted to stay.  UKIP expressly made it a referendum on immigration, and there is a strong correlation between areas (and demographics) with high UKIP support voting to exit.

So yes, there were arguments made for leaving that weren't about immigration, but those arguments aren't why most voted to leave- and that reality has nothing to do with me smirking or not, or having any sense of moral superiority.

[miles]

Then, there is this:

[coho]

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There's video here:
http://theslot.jezebel.com/man-who-voted-for-brexit-is-a-bit-shocked-his-vote-coun-1782553004
It's not YouTube or Vimeo so I couldn't figure out how to embed it. Bugger.

[Papa Lazarou]

Papa, do you know if this Referendum is legally binding?

Just checked, and this site says that it is not.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-legally-binding-brexit-lisbon-cameron-sovereign-parliament

No referendum is legally binding. But that doesn't change a thing.

Us remainers are still clutching at straws.

Then, there is this:

http://youtu.be/nZO9JGSScMQ

Exactly. The people have spoken. This woman is so terminally thick that she is a good example of the people.

This Ebay seller said he was too confused to vote and now has his ballot paper for sale. Too confused or too greedy? http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/EU-Referendum-2016-Vote-Remain-or-Leave-Unused-Ballot-Paper-/262496533363?hash=item3d1e033b73:g:cooAAOSwNuxXbTqr

[kneescrubber]

We can possibly end up with the same situation here

Radio today was saying "Texit 2018" 

Texas Exit...

Hmmm...

That'll never happen. Regardless of what Miles thinks about Texas; there aren't that many stupid Texans to ever pull it off.

[miles]

We can possibly end up with the same situation here

Radio today was saying "Texit 2018" 

Texas Exit...

Hmmm...

That'll never happen. Regardless of what Miles thinks about Texas; there aren't that many stupid Texans to ever pull it off.

Heh.   

[Meemuh]

And now Iceland beat you...rough week.

[Papa Lazarou]

And now Iceland beat you...rough week.

I'm Welsh. 

[Mrs. DantesDame]

Nice save, papa    It was a great game.

[Papa Lazarou]

Always happy to see the English suffer.