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Author Topic: COVID-19 Video  (Read 30491 times)

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Offline R Doug

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #950 on: August 06, 2020, 09:28:29 AM »
And, FWIW, while I believe in the freedom of individuals, my choice is mask all the time, avoid large gatherings (including neighborhood dinners we've been invited to), and give  :facepalm: every time I see those around me going to vacation and eating dinner in crowded places, those attending my church, and those who constantly run out to go shopping in this environment.  Their choice.  But, the US does appears to be doing better than Europe as a whole and I'm sick of the, "you all are a bunch of backward hicks." 


Now, truth be told, why am I avoiding getting the virus? Well, I have one major and one minor reason. The major is my 80 year old mother in law lives with us and we take care of her.  We can't afford to get it and pass it on to her.  Second, I do have a friend my age that is still recovering since March from COVID and appears to have permanent lung damage.  While that may be an outlier, it's not fun to watch.

Statistically, I'm nearly 50.  My likelihood of having any complications with this virus is nearly equal to that of the bad flu.  And, once you start looking at those younger, the odds of complications is LESS than that of the flu.

People should be educate themselves and make wise decisions.  If I'm a baby boomer and still want to attend Sturgis this year, that's not an informed / educated decision.  YMMV
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 10:09:09 AM by R Doug »
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #951 on: August 06, 2020, 09:37:37 AM »
I'm doing the same as Doug. I have gone out to my local bar, handful of people, but other than that avoiding other people for the most part. My wife is an ICU nurse and just got her first COVID patient last week, I probably have a greater risk of getting it from her than anywhere else.

She did have an interesting take on the hydroxychloroquine debate. her opinion* is that while the CDC is correct that it does nothing against the virus it does treat the symptoms (inflammation in the lungs), so basically it won;t keep you from getting the virus but it very well may save your life if you are one of the rare cases that end up in ICU. A few other COPD drugs work this way as well. misinformation (social media) due to politics seems to be the biggest problem we have.

p.s. I will be avoiding all public contact during the rally.  ;)
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Online zer0netgain

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #952 on: August 06, 2020, 10:08:08 AM »
Virginia is now the first state to implement a contact tracing mobil app.

https://richmond.com/news/virginia/watch-now-add-your-phone-to-the-covid-fight-virginia-rolls-out-new-app-to/article_abe4a02f-f52e-5f77-8ed1-8dfdce1f30d7.html

My employer (state agency) just sent an e-mail on that.  I will not participate.  Since they don't own my phone, they can't force me to install it.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #953 on: August 06, 2020, 10:27:26 AM »
Freedumb!
+1

:lol:



...the rate of new cases has started to decrease.


There's something about this chart that's a bit deceiving in comparing the US to the world (or, a hand full of countries representing the world).  While I don't doubt the chart's data, the US is not THAT bad compared to those countries. 



I'm with you on that; there is no single chart that provides a fair comparison because everyone is reporting numbers differently.  In one graph, number of deaths per infections, points in a different direction than number of infections per 100k tested.  (Insert quote attributed to Mark Twain here.)  Compare NY to CA, or CT to FL, or NH to AZ.  Do you see any trends?

To my way of thinking, the US should be the stand-out example of the best way to do it; not a patchwork quilt of hit-or-miss approaches.

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Offline Eh2zed

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #954 on: August 06, 2020, 11:23:36 AM »
I'm not an apologist for the US.  But, it appears to be getting slammed a bit in this thread. 


Europe has 51 countries with a population of about 740 million.
The USA is about 330 million.
European deaths about 200,000  706,000
US deaths about 160,000.
If you use the European ratio then there’s about 65,000 too many deaths in the USA. Why? I’m not sure but I’m getting it’s the masks. I still have no clue about the Germany/France difference either. 30,000 dead French. Less than 10,000 Germans. Germany even has 20,000 more cases than France. So ?????


FTFY

USA Population 330 million.  Agreed
European Population 740 million.  Agreed

USA COVID Cases To Date 4.8 million
European COVID Cases To Date 18.8 million 
The number of cases per million in the US is 1.7X better than Europe

USA COVID Deaths To Date 159K 
European COVID Deaths To Date  706K   
The number of deaths per million in the US is 2X better than Europe

Uh no. European deaths just over 202k.
706 is total worldwide deaths
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Offline R Doug

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #955 on: August 06, 2020, 11:25:06 AM »


To my way of thinking, the US should be the stand-out example of the best way to do it; not a patchwork quilt of hit-or-miss approaches.

i'm more along the lines that each state should be able to set it own course and direction (similar to any other national disaster handling like hurricanes, floods, etc..). They should know best what's right for their people but have data and assistance from the Fed, as needed.  But, now the Trump Administration is having all data go to some independent company for compilation and leaving the states in the dark.  For a guy who also says he believes in the rights of states, he's not showing it by this action.  (sorry to get a bit political here).


 :facepalm: :facepalm:


https://khn.org/news/trump-administrations-sudden-shift-on-covid-data-leaves-states-in-the-lurch/
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Offline R Doug

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #956 on: August 06, 2020, 11:27:23 AM »

Uh no. European deaths just over 202k.
706 is total worldwide deaths


 :smiley_thumb:

Yep, you're right.  Thanks for the follow up.  I just revisited the site I googled for "European COVID stats" and it did report the deaths as global, not just for Europe.   :redface:
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #957 on: August 06, 2020, 11:47:22 AM »
There is a slight spike in some European countries but the governments are reacting quickly.
Switzerland reported 131 new cases the other day, but overall I think that the rates per capita are pretty low here.

Here is a pretty good website for Swiss stuff, for those who care
« Last Edit: August 06, 2020, 12:18:05 PM by Mrs. DantesDame »
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #958 on: August 06, 2020, 01:05:37 PM »
Are you disappointed too?
She's got a worm in 'er belly? That's disgusting! That's interesting, but very disgusting. 

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #959 on: August 06, 2020, 01:09:05 PM »
Are you disappointed too?

2020 isn't over yet.
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Offline jimmy

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #960 on: August 06, 2020, 02:12:30 PM »
  :redface:

We all make mistakes!  :thumbsup:

















ya backwards hick!     :bigsmile:

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #961 on: August 06, 2020, 03:03:19 PM »
Putting the laughter back into manslaughter

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #962 on: August 06, 2020, 03:35:03 PM »
If it weren't for the therapeutic properties of the occasional off-camber decreasing radius downhill right-hander I'd almost certainly go completely sane.

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #963 on: August 06, 2020, 03:53:26 PM »
Putting the laughter back into manslaughter

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #964 on: August 07, 2020, 03:48:19 AM »
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 05:06:17 AM by Papa Lazarou »
Putting the laughter back into manslaughter

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #965 on: August 07, 2020, 07:39:07 AM »
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #966 on: August 08, 2020, 02:56:23 PM »
no, I didn't get all the references eitherer.; but this covers both the Brexit thread and this one. Could be the Tory rapist as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWdmkGw9qng&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3ov5N2bJWZF2grkKDtu9Z9SDxUPcaQRcNvBDk0wB9ZJX_4gwHHdW-ep4Q
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #967 on: August 08, 2020, 04:30:50 PM »
How old and how healthy are a couple big factors. Why California has done better than New York. Southern state beware.


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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #968 on: August 13, 2020, 01:26:40 AM »
Putting the laughter back into manslaughter

Online Skee

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #969 on: August 13, 2020, 08:35:43 AM »
Not to worry; there's just one case...
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Offline Eh2zed

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #970 on: August 14, 2020, 12:09:04 PM »
I never would have thought that a global pandemic that’s killed 3/4 of a million people so far would be the 2nd greatest threat to civilization.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #971 on: August 14, 2020, 02:26:13 PM »
I never would have thought that a global pandemic that’s killed 3/4 of a million people so far would be the 2nd greatest threat to civilization.
The first is Twitter?
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #972 on: August 14, 2020, 04:16:57 PM »
I never would have thought that a global pandemic that’s killed 3/4 of a million people so far would be the 2nd greatest threat to civilization.
The first is Twitter?

Twitter's in a back and forth battle for the lead with facebook.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #973 on: August 15, 2020, 08:51:32 AM »
Reading the article posted above, can someone explain to me what this means?

"The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that there are between 1,000 and 2,000 cases of plague globally each year.

Between 30 and 100 percent of those cases prove fatal, according to the WHO. "

It's the second sentence that isn't exactly clear. Seem an awfully wide spread.

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #974 on: August 15, 2020, 11:57:24 AM »
Reading the article posted above, can someone explain to me what this means?

"The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that there are between 1,000 and 2,000 cases of plague globally each year.

Between 30 and 100 percent of those cases prove fatal, according to the WHO. "

It's the second sentence that isn't exactly clear. Seem an awfully wide spread.

I can't fully explain the statistical model they used because I am not interested in reading the article and it's quite possible the author either didn't include sufficient detail or misrepresented certain data because they didn't understand what they were saying.  Happens all the time. 

[Revised for clarity] There is an estimated range of 1000 to 2000 cases per year.  I would assume there is a difference between the estimated range and the actual number number of cases per year.  (In other words, the actual number of cases in any given year could be lower than 1000 or higher than 2000).  There is also an estimated percentage of fatal cases each year. So the average number of fatalities is dependent on 2 estimates.  Regardless of the number of actual cases, the number of fatalities each year is estimated to be as low as (30%x1000=) 300 or as high as (100%x2000=) 2000. 

At least that is how I interpret it.  Anyone else? 
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 12:56:34 PM by Skee »
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Offline Eh2zed

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #975 on: August 15, 2020, 01:45:22 PM »
I’m trying to imagine how the WHO figures out the cause of death for some poor sap in the middle of a country that has basic medical care that consists of someone with a bandaid and an alcohol swab. It’s sad but a fact that they are stuck with estimating.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #976 on: August 15, 2020, 01:47:46 PM »
I’m thinking that the statistics on Belgium which is a modern country are a prime example of how statistics can be very confusing.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #977 on: August 15, 2020, 04:26:21 PM »
I’m thinking that the statistics on Belgium which is a modern country are a prime example of how statistics can be very confusing.
If you add up all the numbers, I’m the progeny of Tutankhamun.
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Online Skee

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #978 on: August 15, 2020, 06:00:48 PM »
I’m thinking that the statistics on Belgium which is a modern country are a prime example of how statistics can be very confusing.

Yeah, statistics can be difficult to understand.  That’s why some people rely on gut instinct instead of making data-based decisions. “Listen to your gut, no matter how good something sounds on paper.”

On the other hand, if you had insufficient resources to test all scenarios, like WHO does in assessing worldwide disease or like the USA did when assigning air patrols sectors before the battle of Midway, it would be very helpful to make use of statistics (and some game theory math) to evaluate which strategy to pursue.  I understand the data analysis for Midway also represents the first use of computer data analysis in a military situation, but that is based on something I read years ago, and many accounts chalk it up to shear dumb luck.  I know which version of the story I prefer. 

Just like motorcycle riding (push left to go right), data based decisions often involve confusing directives, because they are counterintuitive.  “Guys like us, we’re not brainiacs on the nerd patrol.”


Then I look at stuff I wrote like this and realize I have been cooped up inside way too long.
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Offline Eh2zed

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #979 on: August 15, 2020, 06:56:13 PM »
Statistics are just an excuse for the existence of baseball.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #980 on: August 15, 2020, 07:37:57 PM »
So true. 
"The mistake you cannot make is to judge the past through the eyes of the present.  Judge the past on its own terms."  
João Zilhão on the Assimilation Model of Human Origin

"The fishermen know that the sea is dangerous and the storm terrible, but they have never found these dangers sufficient reason for remaining ashore."   Vincent van Gogh

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #981 on: August 15, 2020, 09:22:18 PM »
My understanding of how they figure how many died due to Covid is they compare how many deaths at this time in 2020 vs how many deaths on average at the same time for the previous years. It's probably the best guestimate you can get.  :shrug:
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #982 on: August 16, 2020, 04:08:24 AM »
My understanding of how they figure how many died due to Covid is they compare how many deaths at this time in 2020 vs how many deaths on average at the same time for the previous years. It's probably the best guestimate you can get.  :shrug:

seems to be the best method. not quick, as it takes a few weeks to gather the data.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #983 on: August 16, 2020, 08:44:35 AM »
Check out today’s Dilbert Comic.

Humans Making Decisions
"The mistake you cannot make is to judge the past through the eyes of the present.  Judge the past on its own terms."  
João Zilhão on the Assimilation Model of Human Origin

"The fishermen know that the sea is dangerous and the storm terrible, but they have never found these dangers sufficient reason for remaining ashore."   Vincent van Gogh

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #984 on: August 16, 2020, 09:36:50 AM »
My understanding of how they figure how many died due to Covid is they compare how many deaths at this time in 2020 vs how many deaths on average at the same time for the previous years. It's probably the best guestimate you can get.  :shrug:

I've heard a few guys, that are purported to be smart, say we won't really know the true virus impact until life expectancy numbers are calculated. Think of all the non-medical things that have been affected, from auto crashes to suicides to food production to economic impact...

Complicated situation.

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #985 on: August 16, 2020, 12:16:57 PM »
Lies, damn lies and statistics.


They are incentivizing the numbers and skewing the outcome, any off the record nurse or doctor will confirm.  Not that it is not a problem and real.

 
They have indicated that I could be orange.

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #986 on: August 16, 2020, 03:26:21 PM »
Lies, damn lies and statistics.


They are incentivizing the numbers and skewing the outcome, any off the record nurse or doctor will confirm.  Not that it is not a problem and real.

 

They may be the case in the US but nearly everywhere else is under reporting, partly because of lack of testing, partly because no government wants high figures.
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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #987 on: August 16, 2020, 04:24:32 PM »
Lies, damn lies and statistics.


They are incentivizing the numbers and skewing the outcome, any off the record nurse or doctor will confirm.  Not that it is not a problem and real.

 

Our friends sent me an email warning me not to believe the statistics that are being reported because the numbers are being inflated to make people think the situation is worse than it really is.  They went on to say (later in the same email) that they have temporarily left their home in Florida (along with anyone else who has any sense, in their words) for a place they have in the Blue Ridge Mts because too many people are getting sick.

I don't know who to believe.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2020, 04:54:16 PM by Skee »
"The mistake you cannot make is to judge the past through the eyes of the present.  Judge the past on its own terms."  
João Zilhão on the Assimilation Model of Human Origin

"The fishermen know that the sea is dangerous and the storm terrible, but they have never found these dangers sufficient reason for remaining ashore."   Vincent van Gogh

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #988 on: August 16, 2020, 05:04:41 PM »
Lies, damn lies and statistics.


They are incentivizing the numbers and skewing the outcome, any off the record nurse or doctor will confirm.  Not that it is not a problem and real.

 

Our friends sent me an email warning me not to believe the statistics that are being reported because the numbers are being inflated to make people think the situation is worse than it really is.  They went on to say (later in the same email) that they have temporarily left their home in Florida (along with anyone else who has any sense, in their words) for a place they have in the Blue Ridge Mts because too many people are getting sick.

I don't know who to believe.

 :lol:
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.  --Douglas Adams

Offline Eh2zed

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #989 on: August 17, 2020, 05:56:04 PM »

[/quote]

 :lol:
[/quote]

😂😂😂

It’s hard to hide the bodies....
My GPS just told me to turn left, then turn left, then turn left, then turn left.
So if I go too far left do I end up right?

Online radon222

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #990 on: August 19, 2020, 02:50:31 PM »
The "Corona Song" = John Valby*

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=V7JZgJbwZ14&list=RDAMVMV7JZgJbwZ14




*believe it or not, its actually SFW

Offline Eh2zed

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #991 on: August 24, 2020, 07:47:17 PM »
Some 33 year old guy in Hong Kong recovered from Covid19.
142 days later he got it again.
Crap.
My GPS just told me to turn left, then turn left, then turn left, then turn left.
So if I go too far left do I end up right?

Online miles

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Your mother was a hamster and your father smelled of elderberries

Online zer0netgain

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #993 on: August 25, 2020, 03:43:24 AM »
Some 33 year old guy in Hong Kong recovered from Covid19.
142 days later he got it again.
Crap.

Immunity doesn’t last.
The virus has mutated into multiple strains...he might have contracted a different strain.
Getting over it doesn’t mean it isn’t hiding in your system...like chicken pox.
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Online Papa Lazarou

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #994 on: August 25, 2020, 05:20:57 AM »
let's hope it mutates into something less virulent.
Putting the laughter back into manslaughter

Online Skee

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #995 on: August 29, 2020, 12:33:43 PM »
FDA gives go-ahead to fast $5 coronavirus test that doesn't require lab equipment

"The US FDA has authorized emergency use of a coronavirus test that costs $5 and can produce results in 15 minutes without the use of any lab equipment. "

"Test-maker Abbott says it could soon manufacture 50 million of the rapid antigen tests per month, which could ease the country's testing bottleneck by greatly increasing overall capacity and the speed at which results arrive."

"Abbott's test is designed for use within seven days of the onset of symptoms. It gives results on a card reminiscent of the stick used in many over-the-counter pregnancy tests. If one line appears on the card, the patient is negative for the coronavirus; two lines indicates a positive result."

"Data that Abbott submitted to the FDA show that the test accurately detects 97.1 percent of positive samples and 98.5 percent of negative samples."
"The mistake you cannot make is to judge the past through the eyes of the present.  Judge the past on its own terms."  
João Zilhão on the Assimilation Model of Human Origin

"The fishermen know that the sea is dangerous and the storm terrible, but they have never found these dangers sufficient reason for remaining ashore."   Vincent van Gogh

Offline squeezer

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #996 on: August 29, 2020, 07:05:32 PM »
Poking around the research lit today. Demographic research shows the average life expectancy in the U.S. has already been reduced 0.4 years. They estimate the premature deaths in the U.S. have resulted in 1.5 million years of potential life lost. Preprint, still in peer review.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.06.20147009v1
A man with no sig

Online bedlamite

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #997 on: August 30, 2020, 09:06:48 AM »
A plan is just a list of things that doesn't happen.

Online Papa Lazarou

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Re: COVID-19 Video
« Reply #998 on: Today at 02:20:26 AM »
Christmas day. dad hands you a present. it certainly *feels* like AstraZeneca's ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. heart pounding, you unwrap it. out falls the Moderna mRNA-1273 injection. the blood drains from your face. "just like you wanted!", says dad. you nod, fighting back the tears.

(shamelessly stolen from Alex Heaney)
Putting the laughter back into manslaughter