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Author Topic: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.  (Read 7809 times)

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Offline chornbe

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http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine/7816951/

Quote
Jews in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where pro-Russian militants have taken over government buildings were told they have to "register" with the Ukrainians who are trying to make the city become part of Russia, according to Ukrainian and Israeli media.

Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city's Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee "or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated," reported Ynet News, Israel's largest news website.


You just don't step over certain lines twice.  :facepalm:
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Offline giaka

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2014, 12:24:32 PM »
I don't think its going to end well for any of us. Putin thinks the west is afraid. Not meant to go political FWIW.
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Offline chornbe

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2014, 12:47:49 PM »
We are (or sure as *()& should be) mature enough to discuss world events without insecure nutjobs blaming one party or another. If that shit happens, it just means we're collectively a bag of dicks. There, challenge issued: don't be a bag of dicks.  :bigok:
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2014, 12:53:31 PM »
I saw this and couldn't believe my eyes.

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2014, 01:02:07 PM »
The Russians and the West have agreed that all Ukrainian insurectionists (except in Crimea) are to be disarmed. That, and the Ukrainian army has just shot and killed a few.
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Offline stew71

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2014, 01:03:56 PM »
Quote
Jews in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where pro-Russian militants have taken over government buildings were told they have to "register" with the Ukrainians who are trying to make the city become part of Russia, according to Ukrainian and Israeli media.

Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city's Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee "or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated," reported Ynet News, Israel's largest news website.

You just don't step over certain lines twice.  :facepalm:

History repeats itself all too often.   :-\
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2014, 02:06:53 PM »
I don't think its going to end well for any of us. Putin thinks the west is afraid. Not meant to go political FWIW.

Putin is correct, I think he has Obama right where he wants him :-\
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Offline Mr. Whippy

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2014, 02:17:27 PM »
There is no one else on the international stage who can stand up to Putin.  He will do as he pleases, knowing that the stiffest resistance he will get is in the form of a tough worded protest.

Offline chornbe

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2014, 02:26:43 PM »
See? The USA blew its load of good will being a world police at the wrong times, in the wrong places for the wrong reasons. NOW, it's a problem, but if the last 10 years hadn't happened the way it did, people would be cheering for the USA to march over there and kick some ass over this.

Now...? Now we're just... unwelcome.
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2014, 02:44:17 PM »
See? The USA blew its load of good will being a world police at the wrong times, in the wrong places for the wrong reasons. NOW, it's a problem, but if the last 10 years hadn't happened the way it did, people would be cheering for the USA to march over there and kick some ass over this.

Now...? Now we're just... unwelcome.

IMO the current administration is the biggest problem.
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2014, 02:50:31 PM »
Couldn't get to 10 posts without it becoming partisan.   
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Offline CosmicCowboy

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2014, 02:51:48 PM »
See? The USA blew its load of good will being a world police at the wrong times, in the wrong places for the wrong reasons. NOW, it's a problem, but if the last 10 years hadn't happened the way it did, people would be cheering for the USA to march over there and kick some ass over this.

Now...? Now we're just... unwelcome.

I think we were ok with Afghanistan, but once we got embroiled in Iraq...yeah, it was pretty much over.

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #12 on: April 17, 2014, 02:52:49 PM »
Couldn't get to 10 posts without it becoming partisan.

international affairs will do that to a conversation. not saying the current administration is right or wrong "overall", just not doing well on this.
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2014, 02:59:24 PM »
Couldn't get to 10 posts without it becoming partisan.

international affairs will do that to a conversation. not saying the current administration is right or wrong "overall", just not doing well on this.

I work with people who have spent their entire adult working lives on the intense study of international relations. They rarely see a reason to go there since it generally produces distractions rather than informed analysis of a complex situation. And they work with and for both parties.
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2014, 03:01:23 PM »
Couldn't get to 10 posts without it becoming partisan.

international affairs will do that to a conversation. not saying the current administration is right or wrong "overall", just not doing well on this.

I work with people who have spent their entire adult working lives on the intense study of international relations. They rarely see a reason to go there since it generally produces distractions rather than informed analysis of a complex situation. And they work with and for both parties.

but then this is a motorcycle forum, eh...... ;D

but as for distractions, if you were a foreign leader would you push Bush ( I or II) or Obama farther? before being afraid of military action? not that simple for the Putin debate, but pretty close for some of the middle east leaders ;)
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Offline chornbe

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #15 on: April 17, 2014, 03:21:45 PM »
Couldn't get to 10 posts without it becoming partisan.

 :facepalm: (sigh)

but then this is a motorcycle forum, eh...... ;D

Well, it's a forum full of people who range the gamut of lifestyles, genders, jobs, geographies, etc... It's people.

Quote
but as for distractions, if you were a foreign leader would you push Bush ( I or II) or Obama farther? before being afraid of military action?

See, that's a valid question, but it's also very loaded in that it's going to spark partisan bullshit. You should have opened with that, honestly.  :thumbsup:
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Offline Scratch

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #16 on: April 17, 2014, 03:24:15 PM »
Couldn't get to 10 posts without it becoming partisan.

 :facepalm: (sigh)

Happy now?  >:(

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2014, 03:32:40 PM »


Well, it's a forum full of people who range the gamut of lifestyles, genders, jobs, geographies, etc... It's people.



See, that's a valid question, but it's also very loaded in that it's going to spark partisan bullshit. You should have opened with that, honestly.  :thumbsup:

people in one placed based on their hobby/passion. so not really a random sampling of America but I get your point.

there is no way you can discuss foreign affairs without it becoming political (politics dictates foreign affairs) and the typical partisan bickering that goes with it. But, we can do it politely , no?
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2014, 04:27:09 PM »
but then this is a motorcycle forum, eh...... ;D

 :lol:  Yeah. And, by the way, I wasn't trying to scold or be a netcop or anything. Just noting...

but as for distractions, if you were a foreign leader would you push Bush ( I or II) or Obama farther? before being afraid of military action? not that simple for the Putin debate, but pretty close for some of the middle east leaders ;)

Well, since you asked, I would have found Bush II much more easy to manipulate. And it was much easier to isolate the U.S. geopolitically as a bad guy under Bush II since he managed to piss off every ally we had. And I would have been less worried about his ability to use force, if not his willingness, because he had already over committed forces and budget on stuff like invading countries over WMD's that didn't exist (a case which also serves as an example of how easy he was to manipulate -- I mean his primary source of intelligence on that came from one Iraqi expat with dubious credentials -- unreal).

Bush I and Obama are actually very similar in both their likelihood  of using force and their preference for limited engagements (e.g., Bush I pushed Iraq out of Kuwait without crossing the Iraqi border & Obama used limited air strikes to help bring down Gadhafi), avoiding invasions that would then require lengthy occupations, and the use of diplomacy and economic sanctions as tools (regarding the latter, Obama's approach of targeting Russian oligarchs rather than the general population -- as Bush I did with Iraq -- with sanctions seems an improvement in strategy). Certainly Obama has used assassination -- with both drone strikes and special forces teams -- more overtly than either, perhaps more than any president ever, and it will probably take a while to judge the effectiveness of that as a policy. If I was a bad guy in a stateless organization  like a terrorist group, that would worry me. Though that's not a tactic he could use against Putin, I think everyone outside of Fox News watchers -- that is, the rest of the world -- understands that while he doesn't like to commit to full scale military actions, he hasn't demonstrated many qualms about killing people as a tool for foreign policy or domestic security.

Bottom line for your question:  I would consider both Bush I and Obama more formidable adversaries, though perhaps less gunslingers, than Bush II. Skip the partisanship because it only fouls the analysis.
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2014, 04:35:15 PM »
IBTL

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2014, 04:36:40 PM »
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2014, 05:04:54 PM »
Please don't take this political.

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2014, 05:12:48 PM »
Putin knows what he is doing, too well for us to react with force. As the OP stated I don't see it ending well.
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2014, 05:20:14 PM »
Putin knows what he is doing, too well for us to react with force. As the OP stated I don't see it ending well.


Well, one positive is that it's made Yakov Smirnoff relevant again.   

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2014/04/16/orig-jtb-yakov-smirnoff.cnn.html


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Offline Mr. Whippy

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2014, 05:27:34 PM »
but then this is a motorcycle forum, eh...... ;D

 :lol:  Yeah. And, by the way, I wasn't trying to scold or be a netcop or anything. Just noting...

but as for distractions, if you were a foreign leader would you push Bush ( I or II) or Obama farther? before being afraid of military action? not that simple for the Putin debate, but pretty close for some of the middle east leaders ;)

Well, since you asked, I would have found Bush II much more easy to manipulate. And it was much easier to isolate the U.S. geopolitically as a bad guy under Bush II since he managed to piss off every ally we had. And I would have been less worried about his ability to use force, if not his willingness, because he had already over committed forces and budget on stuff like invading countries over WMD's that didn't exist (a case which also serves as an example of how easy he was to manipulate -- I mean his primary source of intelligence on that came from one Iraqi expat with dubious credentials -- unreal).

Bush I and Obama are actually very similar in both their likelihood  of using force and their preference for limited engagements (e.g., Bush I pushed Iraq out of Kuwait without crossing the Iraqi border & Obama used limited air strikes to help bring down Gadhafi), avoiding invasions that would then require lengthy occupations, and the use of diplomacy and economic sanctions as tools (regarding the latter, Obama's approach of targeting Russian oligarchs rather than the general population -- as Bush I did with Iraq -- with sanctions seems an improvement in strategy). Certainly Obama has used assassination -- with both drone strikes and special forces teams -- more overtly than either, perhaps more than any president ever, and it will probably take a while to judge the effectiveness of that as a policy. If I was a bad guy in a stateless organization  like a terrorist group, that would worry me. Though that's not a tactic he could use against Putin, I think everyone outside of Fox News watchers -- that is, the rest of the world -- understands that while he doesn't like to commit to full scale military actions, he hasn't demonstrated many qualms about killing people as a tool for foreign policy or domestic security.

Bottom line for your question:  I would consider both Bush I and Obama more formidable adversaries, though perhaps less gunslingers, than Bush II. Skip the partisanship because it only fouls the analysis.

I'm going to disagree with you somewhat.  Bush I built an extensive and international alliance, did exactly what he pledged to do, respected his allies and punished those who went against the alliance.  It was a tour-de-force of international diplomatic persuasion and cooperation.

Clinton was part of a coalition that intervened in the former USSR eastern block genocides and ultimately performed well enough in an international effort, although his record was mixed regarding Somalia.  Thankfully commanders on the ground disregarded his orders to pull out and quickly assembled an international rescue effort with the Pakistanis (and Malaysians (I think?)).  If it had gone wrong, those commanders would have been washed up or possibly court marshalled for not following orders from the CIC.  Luckily, it went well.

Bush II was a loose cannon and pissed away all the international goodwill that could have propelled him to greatness as an international leader.  Iraq was uncalled for, and strikes me as small minded payback for Hussein making an attempt on his father's life.

Obama, has signaled he has no stomach for a fight if there isn't unanimity within the proposed alliance.  Putin's clanging disapproval of force used in Syria, despite near total agreement within the EU and US, completely put the brakes on any meaningful action.  I believe it indicated to Putin that Obama could not hold together even the most obvious of alliances.

Greenlighting a drone strike isn't really much of a command decision, after all, there are no friendly forces really at risk.  The order to take Osama Bin Laden was an act of leadership. However, there was no real international effort involved.

In short, I don't see much similarity between Bush I and Obama.

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #25 on: April 17, 2014, 05:59:24 PM »
Please don't take this political.

IMHO it already is.
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #26 on: April 17, 2014, 06:20:38 PM »
Please don't take this political.

IMHO it already is.

Agreed.

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #27 on: April 17, 2014, 09:23:20 PM »
Fellas- can we stay away from party politics?  Without going there, here are my thoughts:

I think the US is in a bad spot right now because we just got done fighting a series wars in various countries.  No matter who was in charge, we were there.  The problem is that many of the American people are sick of wars- they are sick of our boys coming home in bags.  All parties.  I think Putin recognizes this and now is pushing it while he sees a chance.

My fear is that due to the dislike of wars we will not do anything meaningful (much like at the outset of WW2)- and I think that would be the case no matter who was in power.  We are in a very similar place to where we were at the outbreak of WW2- we don't want to get involved, we have recently seen the pain of war, and honestly many people are feeling isolationist. 

It is a frightening place to be, especially when one realizes exactly how good a read on the USA Putin has.  If I were to guess, I bet the CIA is bringing in information right now that is making the military and the president cringe seeing what is probably going to happen next.

The Jew thing?  That scares the crap out of me.  Haven't we (as a race) learned?
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #28 on: April 18, 2014, 01:55:56 AM »
Please don't take this political.

IMHO it already is.

Agreed.

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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #29 on: April 18, 2014, 06:46:26 AM »
This whole thing is very disturbing. I think that the West has used the right strategy so far. Seems they have hit the wealthy in Russia in the right place. Using military force is so unthinkable, considering the possible result. Fucking Putin knows that if he wants to steal the country and put it back under Russian control, he has to do it now, or lose any hope of getting it back. It's amazing that he talks like the Ukraine is a place where he has the right to do what he wants there,and not a sovereign country.
 As far as the semi veiled attack on the Jewish population in the eastern part of the country, I think it's from a bunch of extremists who were just wanting a situation where they can flex their hate. That is something that the Ukraine will have to deal with.
 The whole thing gives me a headache to think about. I really don't understand why anyone would want to be president.
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #30 on: April 18, 2014, 07:45:55 AM »
Me, I think we, the West, just made things much worse.
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Re: I don't see this ending well for the Ukraine & Russia, et al.
« Reply #31 on: April 18, 2014, 07:52:18 AM »
Russia is a super power (or at least the remnants of one. there aren't any good options for the west. we are going to have to swallow our pride and realize we aren't going to get our way on this one or risk destroying our already fragile economy.
the above are merely the ramblings of a hamfisted fuckwit who has broken too many helmets.